There are 5 specific lessons for it

The reason for this could be that Congress has a different base than the RJD or the CPI-ML.

The RJD and the CPI-ML have complementary bases: the first between the Yadav and the Muslims and the second between the Yadav, the Dalits and a section of OBC that do not belong to Yadav in the areas of their influence. Both have opposed the rule of the upper castes.

This is why Mahagathbandhan performed better in the Bhojpur region, where both RJD and CPI-ML are strong.

Congress, on the other hand, is a party dominated by the upper castes, so it is possible that a section of the RJD and perhaps even the voters of the CPI-ML have not moved to Congress. Up to 41 percent of the candidates for Congress were from the upper castes.

Not surprisingly, Mahagathbandhan’s other party with a low strike rate, the IPC, is also known to be dominated by the poorer upper castes.

On the contrary, it is also possible that the presence of Congress in such an alliance hampered its ability to win over the upper castes discontented with the NDA, who may have later moved on to the LJP. This could also be due to the weakness of congressional candidates in certain seats.

The main problem, therefore, is the failure of Congress to win over the upper castes.

Some would argue that Congress could be more compatible in an alliance with a party like JD (U), which has a more harmonious equation with the upper castes.

In fact, representation of both upper castes and non-Yadav CBOs has been higher in the congressional government and later under Nitish Kumar, but declined during the RJD years.

An important aspect not only of Bihar, but also of the indirect defeats, was the weakness of the Congress in the seats where it is the main rival of the BJP.

• BJP won 80 percent of its direct contests against Congress in Bihar.
• In Gujarat, BJP won all 8 seats and Congress was its main rival.
• In Madhya Pradesh, BJP won 19 of 28, a winning percentage of 68.
• In Karnataka, BJP won its two seats, defeating Congress and JD (S).
• In Manipur, BJP won 4 out of 5 seats and Congress did not open its account.
• The only places where Congress did well in direct contests against the BJP were a seat in Haryana, Jharkhand, and Chhattissgarh.
• Compared to Congress, regional parties performed better in fighting the BJP in their respective states, be it the RJD or CPI-ML in Bihar, BJD in Odisha, and to a lesser extent SP in Uttar Pradesh.

The other characteristic of these elections was the weakness of Congress in the states where it was the main opposition to a ruling regional party.

• In Telangana, the BJP managed to seize the Dubbak seat, defeating the TRS and relegating Congress to third position.
• Congress came third in both seats in Odisha, while the BJP solidified its position as the main opposition in the state.

Seemanchal

Shortly after the Bihar results, various congressional leaders began openly blaming Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen for their defeat. AIMIM won 5 seats in Seemanchal, a region where the RJD is traditionally weak due to a lower concentration of Yadavs and it is Congress that was supposed to abide by the alliance.

But the party even lost a stronghold like Amour, where the six-term Congress MLA Abdul Jalil Mastan came third.

The success of AIMIM in Seemanchal was due in large part to opposition to Congress and the JD (U) MLA and to Mahagathbandhan’s silence on the CAA during the campaign. It should be remembered that Bihar witnessed the largest number of protests against the CAA.

But the Muslim drift from Congress was not unique to Seemanchal.

Gujarat

In Gujarat, Congress lost Abdasa’s seat in Kutch because a large number of Muslims chose independent candidate Hanif Padyar instead of Shantilal Senghani from Congress. Padyar got 18 percent of the vote, Senghani 24 percent.

Manipur

In the Muslim-dominated Lilong seat of Manipur, which used to be a stronghold of Congress, the party won just 0.45 percent of the vote. The seat was won by independent candidate Y Antas Khan.

Uttar Pradesh

In Naugawan Sadat in Uttar Pradesh, which has a sizable proportion of Muslims, especially Shiites, Congress managed to get just 2 percent of the vote. The SP’s Javed Abbas emerged as the BJP’s main rival, garnering 34 percent of the vote to 41 percent for the latter. In Bulandshahr, it was BSP’s Mohammad Yunus who emerged as the main challenger, garnering 33 percent of the vote. The SP had not contested this seat.

So these results indicate that Muslim voters don’t seem to have a lot of trust in Congress.

The results also reveal pockets of resistance from Congress and these may have important lessons for the party.

MP Hagar: Congress wins the Bastion of Sangh

One seat in all by-elections in which the Congressional victory is most significant is Agar in the Dewas district.

This seat used to be a Jan Sangh stronghold and later became a BJP stronghold. The party won this seat only two of the 15 elections held since Independence.

The seat was won by Congressional candidate Vipin Wankhede, a former NSUI state president.

The victory at Hagar shows that Congress can win even a completely solid BJP seat if you work hard and play your cards right.

Valmiki Nagar: 55,000 additional Congressional voters

Although Congress lost the bypoll for the Valmiki Nagar Lok Sabha seat, there are some data points from the result that may give the party some consolation.

Congress won 36 percent of the vote, just two two percentage points behind the victorious JD (U). This was a significant jump of around 12 percentage points from the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

What is also significant is that in the Assembly polls, the Mahagathbandhan obtained 30.5 percent of the votes in the six Assembly segments that fall under the Valmiki Nagar Lok Sabha seat. This means that the Congress got about 5.5 percentage points more votes at the Lok Sabha level than the Mahagathbandhan at the Assembly level.

This would mean that at least 55,000 voters who elected NDA or other parties at the Assembly level elected Congress at the Lok Sabha level. As this is a seat that the Mahagathbandhan has never won, this is no minor achievement for Congress.

There are several other places where the resistance from Congress was quite evident.

Win at Jogi and Scindia Turf

In Chhattisgarh, the party succeeded in seizing the Marwahi seat that was left vacant after the death of the founder of Janata Congress Chhattisgarh, Ajit Jogi.

Congress obtained 56 percent of the votes to the BJP’s 31. The victory is particularly significant as Ajit Jogi’s son had announced his support for the BJP in the seat.

Also in Madhya Pradesh, the Congress managed to hold onto several seats. He inflicted losses on the renegade Jyotiraditya Scindia in various seats in his area of ​​influence, especially in the Morena district.

Hoodas Hold Ground

Then in Haryana’s Baroda, Congress won the seat despite running a relatively lesser-known candidate against the BJP nominee: wrestler Yogeshwar Dutt.

Also in Jharkhand, Congress and its alliance partner JMM won both seats, defeating the BJP.

These successes also reveal the importance of strong regional leaders such as Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh and the Hoodas in Haryana. In Baroda, for example, Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Deepender Hooda treated it as a personal battle and campaigned widely for Congressional candidate Induraj Narwal.

Central UP and Patidar Pockets in Gujarat

The partial success in MP’s Chambal area is also important as Congress appears to be holding firm due to the support of the Dalits in an area where atrocities against them are high.

Even in Uttar Pradesh, the party fared comparatively better in the two central UP seats of Bangermau and Ghatampur. It ranked second in these two seats, indicating that in the center of the UP, the party has great potential to emerge as the main Opposition.

Also in Gujarat, the party put up a good fight in Karjan in the Vadodara district and in Morbi in the Saurashtra region, both with a high proportion of Patidar voters. It lost by more than 15 percentage points in the other 6 seats.