If Shinzo Abe was born to be Japan’s prime minister, the path to political stardom for his potential successor was hardly guaranteed.
Many political analysts see Yoshihide Suga as the frontrunner to replace Prime Minister Abe, who announced last month that he was leaving office due to complications related to colitis, a non-curable inflammatory bowel disease that he was able to manage for most of his life. . tenure.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (PLD) will vote on Monday to choose his replacement. Japan is not a presidential system: the country’s leader is chosen by the parliamentarians, so the next LDP leader, whoever he is, should have an easy path to becoming prime minister.
Former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba are also running. If Suga is chosen, it will mark the pinnacle of an incredible and unlikely political career for the 72-year-old.
Suga and Abe’s careers have been tied for nearly a decade since the latter became prime minister in 2012. Abe became the longest-serving leader in the country since the end of World War II.
Suga was Abe’s right-hand man the entire time, serving as the prime minister’s cabinet secretary, a role similar to a combination of chief of staff and press secretary.
But the two couldn’t be more different stylistically. Abe is the charismatic scion of one of Japan’s leading political dynasties, an important asset in a pedigree-prized party political system. His father was Minister of Foreign Affairs and is related to two former Prime Ministers.
Suga is the son of a farmer and is known as a pragmatic negotiator behind the scenes. He grew up in rural Akita prefecture and moved to Tokyo after high school. He then worked a number of odd jobs, including one at a cardboard factory and another at the famous Tsukiji fish market, to save money for college, which he later attended part-time while working.
Suga entered the fast-paced, punishing world of Japan’s wage earners after graduating, but it didn’t last. Politics was what shaped and impacted the world, and that’s what I wanted to do.
So he decided to run for the Yokohama city council. Although he lacked connections and political experience, he made up for it with courage and hard work. He campaigned door to door, visiting about 300 houses a day and 30,000 in total, according to the PLD. By the time the elections came, he had worn out six pairs of shoes.
Suga’s rap has changed little since that campaign. Today he is known as a successful political operator, who can be trusted to get things done, qualities that made him an excellent right-hand man for Abe.
It was an important ally in the Prime Minister’s efforts to enact a series of economic policies known as “Abenomics,” a combination of monetary stimulus, increased public spending, and structural reforms, aimed at reviving Japan’s stagnant economy.
If elected as prime minister, Suga is expected to be something of a “replacement for Abe,” said Kazuto Suzuki, vice dean and professor of international politics at Hokkaido University.
Suzuki said PLD members may be trying to capitalize on a brief surge in Abe’s popularity after he announced his resignation; Abe’s approval ratings had headed south beforehand. A poll conducted by Mainichi, one of Japan’s leading newspapers, prior to Abe’s resignation announcement, found that 58.4% of those surveyed were unhappy with his handling of the pandemic. And his approval rating had dropped to 36%, the lowest since 2012.
Brad Glosserman, an expert on Japanese politics, said that Suga has yet to show that he “in no way deviates from the Abe line or even the mainstream of the PLD in general.”
“He has a very good story … He is a man who made himself. The question, however, is to what extent does he have a personality that can shine,” said Glosserman, author of “Peak Japan: The End of great ambitions “.
That could be a difficult task. Abe will resign amid widespread discontent over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the ensuing economic crisis, which has provided an opportunity for his political opponents.
Major issues, such as massive public debt and an aging population, loom large and despite Abe’s public calls for reforms for gender equality in the workplace, critics say he failed to address the gap. gender issues in the country or solve the problems that prevent greater participation of women. in economics and politics.
If chosen, Suga could be forced to sell himself to the public very soon. The government is due to hold another general election by October 2021, but Defense Minister Taro Kono said Wednesday that snap elections could be called next month.
As Chief Cabinet Secretary, Suga was widely viewed as a successful spokesperson because he could get a message across without overshadowing him or his boss. But that same skill could prove to be a problem in the senior position, where public speaking and charisma are important traits in communicating a message to the public.
“No one really knows who this man is. He has worked behind the scenes,” Glosserman said of Suga. “She has not yet developed or presented an image to the Japanese public that they can endorse and support.”
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