Shinzo Abe | Photo credit: PTI
The race to succeed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe began informally on Saturday, with several contenders announcing their plans to run, a day after Japan’s oldest leader announced his resignation.
Abe said he was suffering from a recurrence of ulcerative colitis, the condition that forced him to interrupt his first term in office, but that he would remain until his successor is decided.
It was not yet clear exactly how the process will unfold, and local media reported on Saturday that various options were being considered.
Abe’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party could opt for a more traditional leadership election, involving lawmakers but also party members across the country.
But the urgency of the situation, as well as the limitations imposed by the coronavirus outbreak, could cause the party to choose to only poll its legislators and regional representatives, a faster process.
A decision on how and when the elections will be held is expected early next week, along with more clarity on who will run for office.
Some aspiring candidates have already tipped their hats, including the party’s chief of policy, Fumio Kishida, a mild-mannered former foreign minister who considered Abe’s personal choice as a successor, and former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is considered more popular. with voters, but has less party support than other candidates.
Finance Minister Taro Aso, a former prime minister and long considered a possible successor to Abe, has announced that he will not run.
Other potential candidates include powerful Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, considered by many to be a favorite, and current Defense Minister Taro Kono, a social media savvy former foreign minister who is viewed as unlikely. .
One woman is among those expected to remain standing until now: Seiko Noda, a former cabinet minister whose chances are believed to be slim.
– No drastic changes –
Whoever comes out on top, analysts said, a small major change in policy is expected.
“Key policies, diplomacy and economic measures will not change drastically,” Shinichi Nishikawa, a political science professor at Meiji University in Tokyo, told AFP.
“His successor could be an interim,” Nishikawa added, as the PLD will hold another leadership election in September 2021, with general elections likely the following month.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, an honorary professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo, said Abe’s successor would produce no surprises but would face “great challenges.”
Most immediate will be the ongoing response to the coronavirus pandemic, with strong criticism of the Abe government so far for policies considered contradictory and slow.
But there are also diplomatic challenges on the horizon, including in relations with China.
Ties had been heating up, but with tensions rising between Beijing and Washington and concerns nationwide over issues such as the coronavirus outbreak and the situation in Hong Kong, the next prime minister faces a balancing act.
Abe is also leaving office with the Tokyo 2020 Olympics issue still unresolved. The Games were postponed a year after the pandemic and are now scheduled to begin in July 2021, but questions remain as to whether the event can be held safely.
And the next prime minister will inherit an economy that had entered a recession even before the coronavirus crisis hit and could face more blows if additional waves of infection force companies to close again this winter.
Tokyo markets tumbled on Friday on news of Abe’s resignation, but recovered slightly before the end of the trade, and economists said the disruption would be minimal because economic policy is not likely to change.
“We believe that current monetary easing policies and expansionary fiscal policies will continue for the duration of the Covid-19 pandemic,” wrote Naoya Oshikubo, senior economist at SuMi TRUST.
“Therefore, the impact on the market should be limited in the medium and long term.”
