The states of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh have all seen a drop in the R-value or reproductive number over the past week, according to a recent study.
The reproductive number is the average number of people infected by an already infected person.
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This value has dropped below 1 in these high-load states in the week beginning September 19, according to the Chennai Institute of Mathematical Sciences, and this has helped to flatten India’s Covid-19 curve. However, the R-value in Maharashtra and Karnataka has started to rise again, said Sitabhra Sinha, a researcher at the institute.
India’s R-value fell from 1.1 to 0.9 during the same week, the study noted, adding that the durability of this trend depends on the infection rate in the cities of Mumbai, Pune, Chennai, Kolkata and Bengaluru.
“India’s Covid-19 count depends on how Maharashtra does as the state accounts for a large number of active cases. Therefore, its contribution to the national average is significant. It will also depend on the magnitude of the R-value and the state continues to dominate the R-value of India, ”said Sinha.
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The Center should develop a plan to contain the spread of infection in states with a high R-value, even if they currently have a low number of infections, as they can easily end up replacing those with the highest R-value in today, he added.
Among states with a high number of Covid-19 cases, Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh have an R-value below 1. In Chennai, Bengaluru and Kolkata, the value has exceeded 1 after a slight drop earlier, the study added. .
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