The Inside Story of the Chirag Paswan Rebellion


Patna: About two weeks before Bihar goes to the polls, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is fractured, with the perception that the BJP has “propped up” Chirag Paswan to unnerve Prime Minister Nitish Kumar by gaining ground.

The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), led by Chirag, has already published the list of its 42 candidates, all against Nitish’s JD (U), for the first phase of the polls on October 28. He seems ready to run candidates against JD (U) and their new ally, Jitram Ram Manjhi’s HAMS for the later phases.

Chirag might be expecting a wave of sympathy for him in the wake of the death of his charismatic father, Ram Vilas Paswan, particularly his fellow Paswan caste members. And since the sentiment of caste guides the psyche of voters in Bihar, their expectations are not out of place.

It is not known how many seats the LJP will win, but what is known is that the sympathy factor could consolidate the party’s main voter base and cause severe damage to the JD (U) candidates in the northern, southern rural constituencies. and central Bihar, where the Paswans have a considerable presence.

Ram Vilas Paswan and Chirag Paswan. Photo: PTI / Archive

What is Chirag’s game plan?

The question that arises then is whether Chirag has decided to play a BJP “proxy” only to defeat Nitish Kumar. Has Chirag decided to be “used” by the BJP just to weaken Nitish? Why is Chirag targeting Nitish and what positive vision does he have for his party and its political perspectives?

A closer look at these questions reveals that the Chirag rebellion has its roots more in the way Nitish Kumar has dealt with the LJP in his 15 years of rule in Bihar. Nitish has worked in a Machiavellian way to break the backbone of the LJP since he took control of the state in 2005.

While serving as UPA minister, Ram Vilas Paswan fought Lalu Prasad Yadav in the February 2005 elections. His party won 29 seats. That number was enough to prevent the Rabri Devi government from retraining power, with the RJD winning 75 seats. As a minister in the congressional-led AU, Senior Paswan could not have supported Nitish, who was with the BJP.

It was at this stage that Nitish befriended the pharmaceutical baron Mahendra Prasad of Jehanabad, one of the richest men in Bihar. Incidentally, after putting the cash-rich pharmacy mogul on his side, Nitish split the LJP and was able to oversee the defection of 22 of his 29 MLAs to JD (U).

But with reports of “mischief” circulating as the February 2005 election results threw a hung assembly, then-Governor Buta Singh recommended the dissolution of the chamber and the imposition of the president’s rule. New elections were held in October / November 2005, when the JD (U) -BJP alliance won 139 seats, ensuring a simple majority in the 243-member chamber.

The majority of the 22 LJP MLAs that changed opposed the new elections as JD (U) candidates and kept their seats. Paswan’s LJP, devoid of many of its formidable candidates, was reduced to just 10 MLA. Nitish made further inroads into the exhausted LJP legislative party, courting many of them after he became prime minister.

After that, Nitish continued to operate in a way that stifled the LJP as a legislative party in Bihar. While at the legislative level, he had repeatedly divided the LJP, at the ground level, he created the “Mahadalit” bloc, comprising 22 of the Dalit castes but not the Paswans.

As chief minister, he formulated policies that gave the Mahadalit more benefits, leaving out the Paswans. He reserved more local body seats for the Mahadalits, giving them political power, and also provided more financial aid, leaving out the Paswans. In the process, he won over non-Paswan Dalits, effectively reducing Ram Vilas from leader of the marginalized sections to leader of Paswan.

Paswan, a skilled politician with a deep understanding of Nitish customs, again befriended Lalu Prasad, the leader he fought bitterly against in 2005, in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Although the RJD-LJP alliance did not work out well, Ram Vilas understood Nitish’s “game” and had apparently calculated that JD (U) and LJP couldn’t work together.

It is pertinent to note here that Ram Vilas joined the BJP-led NDA in 2014, when Nitish left the BJP and joined the Lalu Prasad-led RJD-Congress.Mahagathbandhan‘(great alliance). The Paswan LJP won six seats in the Lok Sabha in 2014 and this started the process of rebuilding the LJP.

But the problems started once again, when Nitish left the mahagathbandhan and joined the BJP in 2017. The first statement made by Nitish’s manager after joining the BJP and forming the government was: “Nitish is the leader of the NDA and JD (U) has an alliance with the BJP ”. At the beginning of rejoining the NDA, Nitish’s party rejected the LJP as a valid component of the NDA.

Regarded as the most accomplished weather vane in Indian politics, Ram Vilas understood Nitish’s designs. Paswan, a sick and elderly man, passed the baton of his party to Chirag and reportedly “taught” him that it was “detrimental” to him and the future of LJP to operate the Nitish company. After his father’s death, Chirag is following in his father’s footsteps by leaving the NDA but choosing to ally with the BJP.

Chirag Paswan and Nitish Kumar. Photo: PTI

The BJP game

It seems to be in the BJP’s best interest if Chirag gets into a fight with Nitish. It is known to all that the BJP is working to achieve final control over Bihar politics and in the process, finds in Chirag an effective “contrast” to the “selfish” and “cunning” Nitish. And Chirag, guided by the feeling that Nitish has always worked to mitigate the existence of the LJP, has no qualms about weakening the Bihar CM.

In fact, with Nitish’s weakening, Chirag also sees a better future for his group in Bihar. The current prime minister has drastically lost his popularity and goodwill with the masses. His party is now dependent on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for votes.

Nitish seems to have gotten caught up in his own game now. Reports are circulating that Nitish managers, spotting “foul play” and the threat of “enemies within,” are keeping options open in the post-survey scenario. He could befriend Congress again should the 2020 assembly elections yield a fractured mandate. Or you could calculate that you could keep your fort by getting rid of the BJP again.

But then, he had rejoined the BJP in 2017 in the wake of the CBI taking over the Rs 2 billion Srijan scam. With opposition parties repeatedly claiming that the BJP “uses” the CBI and the ED to settle scores with political rivals, if Nitish jumps out, he could again be in the crosshairs of these investigative agencies.

Nalin Verma is a senior journalist and author of From Gopalganj to Raisina: my political journey, Autobiography of Lalu Prasad Yadav. He has also written The best folk tales of Bihar.

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