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Despite the fact that 431 new cases of Covid-19 in Maharashtra on Wednesday kept the average number of new cases above 400 in the past four days, the government claimed that the hotspots in the state had dropped to five from 14 years ago. few days.
He also claimed that the death rate had dropped and the doubling rate had improved to 7.01 days from 3.1 days earlier this month.
However, a core team that visited Mumbai and Pune has projected a sharp increase in positive cases over the next two to three weeks and advised the Maharashtra government to make preparations in anticipation of a worse scenario. He also anticipated a massive increase in positive cases in Mumbai between April 30 and May 15.
State health minister Rajesh Tope played down the concerns, saying the projections made by the core team were based on the rate of increase that would not be applicable now.
“There is panic among people about a peak between April 30 and May 15. It is a mathematical model. Surely there is a science behind this, but certain things have been assumed in this, such as the doubling rate, which is considered to be 3.5 (for the projection) and remains static. We have taken many preventive measures. We are conducting surveillance, testing, etc. Tope said.
He said a dramatic spike could only occur if the state government did not take any action.
In the past four days, 2001 positive cases were added to the state count that reached 5,649. 58 patients died during this period, bringing the number to 269. Mumbai tops the list of new Covid-19 patients and victims with 3,683 cases and 161 deceased. Of the 431 new cases and 18 deaths on Wednesday, 232 cases and 10 deaths are from Mumbai. Two of the remaining 8 deaths are from Aurangbad and Pune, and one from Kalyan-Dombivali, Solapur, Jalgaon and Malegaon.
Five of the deceased were over 60 years old, while 12 belonged to the group of 40 to 60 years old and one was under 40 years old. 12 of these patients had high-risk comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes, asthma, and heart disease.
The state’s death rate fell to 4.80% on April 21, well below 7.21% on April 11. The doubling rate of positive patients has been maintained at 7.01 days compared to 3.5 days a few days ago.
During the presentation to Prime Minister Uddhav Thackeray and Chief Secretary Ajoy Mehta, the five-member Central Inter-Ministerial Team (IMCT) reportedly projected an exponential increase in positive cases in Mumbai, with a figure of 42,604 for April 30 and 6.56. lakh for May 15. .
However, state health department officials said the figures do not reflect the current trend. “Those are the old estimates, assuming the Covid-19 case duplication rate is two days. But currently, cases are not increasing at that rate, nor are we testing to reach that number by May 15. Even the percentage of positive cases with respect to the number of tests performed ranges from 5-8%, and with that rate, the projection seems to be unrealistic, “said the official.
Tope said the doubling rate was now 7.01 days and that it could increase further. He added that the death rate has also improved in the state. “Previously, it was 7%, now it is below 5%, and with efforts, it will decrease further.” The minister added that the hot spots in Maharashtra have been reduced from 14 to five: Mumbai, Mumbai Metropolitan Region, Pune, Nagpur Nashik.
State health minister Rajesh Tope refuted the notion that the central government sent the team to Maharashtra for fear that closure measures would not be properly followed in the state and claimed that the state was doing well in terms of the mortality rate and doubling rate.
Tope said: “No one has said that the blocking rules have not been followed [in Maharashtra]… In an epidemic, the situation is always serious. The cluster containment strategy is being properly implemented. If there is a gap, we immediately identify and resolve it … There are two important things: the doubling rate and the mortality rate. The duplication rate has been reduced. Previous cases doubled in three days, then five days, now it’s happening in seven days. It will increase even more. The death rate is also improving. Previously it was above 7%, now it is less than 5%. The number of cases is increasing and would increase further in the coming days. But they are not growing exponentially. “
A senior state government official said core teams that visited Worli-Koliwada, Dharavi and other pockets of slums in the eastern Andheri area have searched for data from people living there. He has also tried to find out the amount of tests carried out in these areas. An official added that the team has advised moving people to quarantine facilities to slow the spread of the viral infection in densely populated areas. “In Mumbai, around 75,000 people must be removed from their homes and transferred to institutional quarantine facilities. We have spaces that include schools and land where you can build. The institutional quarantine will begin aggressively in Mumbai starting tomorrow (Thursday), ”said Tope.
The health minister said the state has revised its preparedness plan. “According to the preparation plan, we are verifying the availability of hospital beds, oxygen beds, PPE kits, etc. We are considering the worst possibility and the BMC is preparing for it. I have instructed BMC to increase test facilities and quarantine facilities as well, ”he said.
The minister also hinted that the blockade could extend beyond May 3 in areas with a large number of cases.
After 67 patients were reported to have fully recovered on Wednesday, the total number of patients discharged from hospitals so far has reached 789. 1.09,072 people are in quarantine in the state and 8051 are in institutional quarantine.
So far, state authorities have conducted 90,223 tests in government and private laboratories, of which 83,979 were negative. The state has 465 containment zones with 6,798 health teams with a combined force of 25.61 lakh people.
During an interaction with Prime Minister Uddhav Thackeray, the IMCT has asked the state government to prepare for the worst-case scenario, an official said.
“They have ordered the government machinery to strictly control the containment areas and start an aggressive outreach to prevent the spread of the virus. They have lobbied for contact tracing and aggressive testing at critical points. The government has also been told to increase the number of health teams to track more high and low risk contacts, “said a state government official on condition of anonymity. The official also said that the core team has asked the state government to take steps to prevent crowding on the roads by the Muslim community to pray during the month of Ramazan.
CM Thackeray briefed the team on the initiative taken by the government to contain the spread at hot spots, especially in the slums of Mumbai and Pune. The team was told that the civic corps in Mumbai had been arriving without waiting for people to report symptoms.
“We have increased the number of tests and it has resulted in an increase in positive cases in the state. We await ICMR approval for the rapid test as soon as possible. The center must also respond positively to the demand raised for the supply of PPE kits, N-95 mask and other equipment, “he said.
The state government fears an extreme reaction from more than 5.7 lakh migrants living in 4,618 camps across the state if the blockade is extended again after May 3.
“We do not want to repeat the Bandra migration crisis after the conclusion of the second phase of the lockout. We have received severe reactions from these migrants who have been held in the camps for more than four weeks with all facilities at their disposal. The state has already spent around Rs 90 crore and a large machinery is dedicated to the arrangements. In some camps, migrants have boycotted food demanding to return to their respective states. Prime Minister Uddhav Thackeray wants to send them back as soon as possible, “said a state government official.
Meanwhile, in response to accusations by former Maharashtra Prime Minister Devendra Fadnavis that the BMC is suppressing the count of Covid-19-related deaths in Mumbai, Tope said the civic corps assured him that the deaths to which Fadnavis was concerned they were not related to the coronavirus.
“The patients were old and had comorbidities. ICMR guidelines say that if a patient arrives in a critical or serious condition, he must first stabilize, and then a swab should be taken. In this case, the patients died during stabilization. The ICMR guidelines also do not say that swab samples should be taken from those patients who died, “he said, emphasizing that the deaths Fadnavis mentioned were non-Covid deaths.
Fadnavis, in a letter to Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, said on Tuesday that patients labeled as “Covid suspects” during admission to Mumbai hospitals were not being screened for the disease after death. He said that at least 44 bodies of “Covid suspect” patients have been discharged from BYL Nair Civic Hospital, a dedicated Covid-19 facility now, without conducting the coronavirus test. There are several similar cases from other hospitals as well, said Fadnavis, who tweeted details of the letter he sent to Prime Minister Uddhav Thackeray.
“We are not hiding any information; There is no reason. Indian government directives and the ICMR protocol are being fully followed, “Tope added.
The minister added that there is a “question mark” about the rapid test or the antibody test after the Center ordered the state government not to use the Chinese. “There is still a question about whether to do it (quick test) at all. In Chinese kits, the IgM and IgG bands are not visible correctly. We will act according to the corrective instructions of the Center. “
