Updated: October 14, 2020 7:55:40 am
The ambiguity is caused only by the Chinese who dispute where LAC is located, says Shyam Saran
On what China wants from the current standoff in eastern Ladakh
We are dealing with an issue that is at the forefront of people’s minds today, which is how to really tackle the challenge of China and this is not just in terms of what is happening on the India-China border … The important thing is to try and place what is happening today in a larger context. Let me make two or three points. One is that, at least since the global financial and economic crisis of 2007-2008, two things have happened. One is that the power gap between China and the United States, both in economic and security terms, narrowed substantially. China recovered faster from the crisis. Second, while in the period before the financial / economic crisis, India was growing at a rate of 8% to 9% per year, China’s economy, in relative terms, was slowing down. So, especially during my time as foreign secretary, the widespread international perception was that India was going to be the next China.
The power gap between China and India was large but it was narrowing. What has happened since 2007-2008? That gap is no longer narrowing, it is actually expanding.
Covid-19 has accentuated that trend. Currently, China has the feeling that thanks to Covid-19 and the very early and very notable recovery of the Chinese economy from the pandemic, China is very well positioned in terms of the future. So what has happened is that China sees an opportunity for itself to really emerge as the dominant power in Asia. And since China thinks of power in hierarchical terms, not multipolar terms, it would like everyone to acknowledge, accept that this is an Asian order dominated by China, and they must accept it. Today, I think what Xi Jinping is trying to convey is that the Asian century is the Chinese century; no one else has space in that particular space. Today they feel: “Why should we give something?” You know, “We are so powerful, the other party has to accept what we are trying to say.”
On whether the showdown is about China trying to ‘show India its place’
Well, if you look at the Chinese media, they are saying, “Don’t underestimate our ability to teach you another lesson.” Know that the PLA is much more powerful than the Indian army; If you try to confront us in any way, you will end up being the loser.
Also, in a sense, it is in the context of the international relationship. What is the message that can be given to the United States? He has begun to look at most of the problems through the prism of today’s most contentious relationship with the United States. You are also looking at India through that prism and you are telling the US, This is a country that cannot even guard its borders, and you are thinking of this country as an important component of your security relationship in This region. It is also, in a sense, sending a message to India that if there is a confrontation with China, do not believe that the United States or your other friends can come and support you in any way.
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On Whether India’s Infrastructure Projects Across LAC Could Have Annoyed The Chinese Establishment
Even with all the improvements that have taken place on the Indian side, I think we should be quite clear that this is not an improvement that coincides in any way, both with the advantage of the terrain that the Chinese have and with the enormous amount of resources they have dedicated. build the infrastructure on your side. So between 2007 and 2013, the two visits I made [Eastern Ladakh], the notable change was that many of the slopes on the Chinese side of LAC had observation towers. There were surveillance cameras, for example, on a helicopter ride from Daulat Beg Oldie to the Karakoram Pass. When you fly, you see that there are surveillance cameras watching you until the pass. That’s why when the Indian patrols leave their bases, the Chinese side immediately knows that such a patrol is taking place … I wouldn’t say every move, but certainly in some of the key areas, they have a surveillance capability. that they didn’t have before.
On whether the Indian side has the ability to match this
They Yes. More recently, they have been using drones, etc. to improve our surveillance capabilities. Therefore, there should not be the impression that we have remained seated. A considerable improvement has been made on our part and I am sure it will continue to do so. But we have to accept the fact that the other party has more resources and has a certain lead time to improve the infrastructure on their side and we are still in the process of trying to catch up.
On the differences of perception about LAC
We know exactly where LAC is. They are all outlined on our Army maps with detailed coordinates; you have the various patrol points that have been identified by the China Study Group on LAC; you are very close to LAC, as far as our patrols will go and these are being reviewed as the infrastructure improves … Now, if there is a difference in perception, it is not that we have a difference in perception about where our LAC lies. The difference in perception arises at several points. The Chinese say that we have a different idea of where LAC is located, so the difference in perception is not due to our accepting, “Oh, that there is something vague here or something ambiguous here.” There is no ambiguity on our side.
The ambiguity is caused only by the Chinese who dispute where LAC is located. And that’s why we have the different Confidence Building Measures and also protocols, because the Chinese patrols are entering these areas that are under our jurisdiction, but because they believe that their Line of Control is further west and our patrols are going towards the most eastern areas. Then there are protocols that say: “Okay, when these encounters take place, they must not participate in any kind of violence, they must not carry weapons, they must politely tell each other that they are transgressing and they must leave. Those are there precisely because of that… the ambiguity created by what the Chinese say is LAC.
On the Prime Minister’s statement that no one has interfered with Indian territory and no one has captured any military post
I have already said that perhaps that particular statement was open to misinterpretation, and it was open to being misused by the other party, who wasted no time misusing it, to basically say that, “Their leader himself basically He’s saying we haven’t meddled. “
I think that is behind us and the Defense Minister has also made it quite clear that we are facing a situation of transgression by China. Otherwise, if there are no transgressions, why should there be some kind of meeting between the two sides? So that’s not something we need to reopen.
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But I think what we have to acknowledge is that those transgressions that have taken place, we are insisting that we should return to the status quo as of April, while the Chinese side seems to be insisting that they will remain where they are, areas. they have occupied, as a result of the recent transgression. So that’s really the challenge: How can we persuade the Chinese side to actually withdraw from the areas they have now occupied as a result of the transgression? As of now, it looks like we haven’t gotten to that point … I suspect this will be a longer haul than usual and maybe stretches through the winter months …
Transcribed by Mehr Gill
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