Cases of coronavirus disease in India are increasing at a rate not seen since May last year, and daily infections in two states have already reached record levels, indicating that the country’s second wave may be worse than the first wave. despite the ongoing vaccination campaign.
India reported 59,074 new Covid-19 infections on Thursday, the highest in a single day since Oct. 17, or in 159 days, as the country’s second wave of Covid-19 continued to raise the number of daily cases to levels. not seen since the first wave. brought under control last November.
The daily trajectory of the infection in two states, Maharashtra and Gujarat, has already passed the peaks of its first wave, and a third state, Punjab, is dangerously close to crossing its previous peak.
The data analyzed by HT also shows that the Indian outbreak has started to spread geographically again. This spread, measured by counting districts that reported at least one new case last week, fell to a nine-month low of 447 on February 19. Since then, these districts have increased again and this number stood at 550 as of March 23.
For the week ending March 25, India reported 47,442 new infections each day on average, the highest the seven-day average has reached since October 28. While in absolute numbers, this is the worst case rate in four months, the numbers become more alarming when we look at the rate at which this is increasing. Just seven days ago, the national seven-day average of daily cases was 28,551. This means that in just one week, the rate of new infections has increased by 66%. This is the highest week-to-week case growth observed in the country since May 10.
Certainly an important distinction between the case trajectory in May and the current one is the high volume of cases: in May, there were only around 3,500 new cases in India every day, compared to the current rate of new infections of more than 47,000 new cases every day. .
This means that the rate of cases in the second wave is growing much faster than it was seen, even as the peak of the first wave swept through August and September. If that weekly growth rate persists, then the second wave may surpass the peak of the first wave in April, the data shows.
A report released by the State Bank of India (SBI) on Thursday said that the country’s second wave may peak by the end of April and that the total duration of the wave may last up to 100 days from February 15. In November, a report by the SBI investigation had analyzed the first wave and said regions such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Delhi and Tamil Nadu performed poorly.
States breaking records
Fueled by another record of 35,952 daily cases in Maharashtra on Thursday, the seven-day average of daily infections (or daily case trajectory) in the state reached 29,213, the highest ever. The previous record for this number was 22,149 cases per day for the week ending September 17, the same week the first wave from India peaked.
Like Maharashtra, Gujarat also set a new single-day record for new cases on Thursday (1,961), sending the seven-day average of new cases to an all-time high of 1,669 on Thursday. The state had previously seen its case rate touch 1,554 for the week ending November 30.
In Punjab, meanwhile, the trajectory of the case is approaching the peak of the first wave. In the past week, the state reported 2,503 new cases each day, slightly below its peak of 2,639 for the week ending Sept. 19. However, this number is increasing and, following the current rate of increase, it looks like it will cross its first wave peak this weekend.
Delhi reported 1,515 new cases on Thursday, the highest in the city since December 16, as the capital continued to grow. At least six other states and UT (Tamil Nadu, Chandigarh, Karnataka, Haryana, Rajasthan, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh) are showing an upward trajectory.
Experts have called for the reintroduction of restrictions on non-essential activities to curb the increase in cases. “Big weddings and reunions are not essential; going to restaurants and pubs is not essential. These should now be restricted before the cases spread further. Yes, there will be financial consequences, but it will save lives, ”said Dr. GC Khilnani, former director of the AIIMS department of pulmonology and president of the Institute of Pulmonary and Intensive Care at PSRI.
Expanding geographically
For the week ending February 11, there were an average of 10,988 new cases each day, the lowest level since the nation’s first peak in September. It was at this time that the geographical spread of the disease in the country was also the least.
On February 19, only 447 of the 707 districts for which How India Lives collects daily case data reported at least one new case that day. This number has increased to 550 by March 23.
To be sure, the spread of the disease spread is not uniform across the country. Jharkhand (consisting of 24 districts), Uttar Pradesh (75) and Uttarakhand (13), which is seeing an increase in the number of devotees gathering for the upcoming Kumbh Mela, have seen the largest increase in the proportion of districts that reported at least one case. Here, the proportion of districts reporting at least one case has increased by 183%, 116% and 67%, respectively, since February 19.
States that have not seen an increase in the proportion of districts reporting cases are those in which the infection was already widespread. Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Punjab, for example, had all districts reporting cases; and Maharashtra had all but one cases on average in the districts on both February 19 and March 23.
Epidemiologists emphasized the importance of closely monitoring the data to understand the scope of the second wave.
“We need new seroprevalence data from districts that are experiencing an increase in cases. In the absence of this, it is difficult to distinguish to what extent the cases can increase in the first and second waves. To detect the second wave, we need to track the reproductive numbers, assess the positivity and the growth rate of the cases constantly, ”said Giridhara Babu, chief of epidemiology at the Indian Institute of Public Health.
(With input from Anonna Dutt and Rhythma Kaul in New Delhi)
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