The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has begun rotating troops on the north bank of Pangong Tso with the intention that it has no immediate plans for withdrawal or de-escalation in Ladakh. The seventh round of diplomatic and military talks between India and China will take place today in Chushul and the Commander of the XIV Corps will meet with the commander of the South Xinjiang military district to discuss comprehensive disengagement.
According to military commanders, the PLA has moved an additional brigade north to Pangong Tso to rotate troops from the finger four mountain spur to maintain the morale of the deployed force. “Since both sides are deployed at nearly 18,000 feet on finger 4 and the weather is deteriorating, the PLA is rotating 200 troops at a time so that front-line troops are fresh and motivated. This clearly means that the PLA has no plans to withdraw at least this winter, “said a senior official.
The assessment of the Indian side is that the full withdrawal will be a lengthy process despite the inherent risk of an outbreak, as the PLA will occupy positions south of Pangong Tso the moment they are vacated by the Indian army. While the PLA has come to their perception of the LAC on the northern shores, the Indian Army troops have come to their perception of the LAC on the southern shores by getting ahead of the Red Army along the Rezang La mountain range. Rechin La.
Although winter is expected to come later this month and get worse, the Indian army is prepared to remain in the heights along the 1,597 km of the Royal Line of Control (LAC) in Ladakh. Army commanders draw lessons from the fact that the Sumdorong Chu confrontation in Arunachal Pradesh that began in 1986 was fully resolved through a comprehensive disengagement in November 1995, after nine years of continuous deployment. While the Sumdorong Chu standoff has been resolved, the army has been sitting on Saltoro Ridge since Operation Meghdoot was launched on the Siachen Glacier in April 1984 – 36 years and counting.
While the PLA aggression in the Galwan Valley and north of Pangong Tso was planned in advance with military objectives in mind, the Chinese were unprepared for either the June 15 outbreak or the August 29-30 prevention. . It is quite evident that the PLA commanders thought that the Indian army would accept the aggression as a fait accompli and move on. However, with both sides fully deployed to the LAC in Ladakh, the chances of an accident are high and thus the distance between front-line troops is maintained.
Despite the PLA’s Western Theater Command being deployed throughout Ladakh LAC and in depth, Chinese problems have been compounded by the confrontation with the United States over Taiwan. The PLA is currently extending with southern and northern theater commandos also deployed to pressure Taiwan with the US Navy active in the South China Sea. What happens next in Taiwan depends largely on the position of the United States after the results of the November presidential elections, but either way US policy toward China has worsened. It must be remembered that the incumbent president has three more months in power before completing his term.
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