Updated: November 4, 2020 2:29:19 am
Campaign signs outside the Coral Gables Library to cast your vote on the last day of early voting for the general election on Sunday, Nov. 1, 2020, in Coral Gables, Florida (AP Photo)
The election of the president of the United States is considered the most important democratic exercise in the world. This is especially true in the 2020 elections, as the United States is more divided than at any other time in its recent history, the planet faces an existential threat from catastrophic climate change, new geopolitical forces threaten to upset the global balance of power. and The once-in-a-century pandemic has impacted economies.
Tomorrow, November 3, is a momentous day, for the United States and the world.
As election day and night unfold, the battle for the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the White House will come down to how President Donald Trump and his Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, perform. in what is called the “battlefield” or “swinging” states. But there is a real possibility that the election result will be delayed and that there will not be a clear winner until well into election night. A protracted legal battle and, in the worst case, potential violence and riots on the streets can follow.
As you watch the elections, keep an eye on what is happening in the battlefield states, and keep in mind that the drama you see can last longer than a single night.
Why are battlefield states important?
Battlefield or swing states hold the key to a candidate’s fate. These are called swing states because they have a history of oscillations between the two main political parties, the Republicans and the Democrats. To use an example from India, an undecided US state would be like the state of Kerala, which has oscillated between the left and Congress in elections.
Swaying states have populations that are politically divided almost equally. Presidential candidates often focus all their energies on these states, sometimes completely skipping the solid blue (Democrat) or red (Republican) states that are expected to inevitably go one direction or another. Both Trump and Biden have targeted these states during their campaigns. 📣 Express Explained is now on Telegram
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Americans do not vote directly for the president. They elect members of the Electoral College who then meet in December and cast their votes based on how the majority of voters in their state voted. The number of electoral college votes for each state is set according to its population. There are 538 votes in the electoral college and a candidate needs at least 270 to enter the White House.
What the polls sayAnalysts identify between 10 and 12 states as battlegrounds in the US presidential elections. For the November 3 elections, the toughest battles are likely to be fought in six of them. Cook’s Political Report identifies Arizona (11 Electoral College votes), Florida (29), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10), as rolls. Most analysts also include North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes).
The largest swing state is Florida – is also among the most politically divided states in the United States. Florida oscillates between the major parties: Democrat Bill Clinton won the state in 1996, Republican George W Bush in 2000 and 2004, Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, and Republican Donald Trump in 2016. The ‘Sunshine State’ is Special also because it is seen as a benchmark state, except in 1992, when he sided with incumbent George HW Bush, Florida has voted with the winning candidate in every election from 1964 (Lyndon B Johnson) to 2016 (Trump).
By beating Hillary Clinton, Trump also won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, albeit with small margins. This time, analysts believe Pennsylvania will be the “turning point.”
The complication is this: Three of the battlefield states, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, will not begin counting the first votes until Election Day, which means that the final results and projections are likely not to be. possible that night. But North Carolina and Arizona have started counting the ballots, and these states are likely to be called on Election Night.
Read also | Here’s your essential Election Day knowledge
Why is there so much uncertainty around the elections?
Much of the uncertainty stems from the fact that the elections are taking place amid the pandemic, which has killed more than 231,000 Americans and fundamentally altered voting behavior and the context of the election.
Large numbers of voters – more than 96 million as of Monday night in India – have voted via mail ballots and early voting (to avoid crowds on November 3). Due to the time it takes to receive, process and count the large number of votes by mail (see FAQs), and the fact that projections may not be possible in various battlefield states, it may not appear a clear winner on election night. Election officials in swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan have said they expect to finish the count in three days.
The only way one can hope for a quick result on election night is if one side wins by a landslide: run to 270 and make the vote count in individual states irrelevant.
Read also | When can we expect the results of the 2020 US elections?
But if that doesn’t happen, and Trump decides to challenge the outcome – his campaign has already prepared legal teams to fight in the event of a closed call and he loses by a narrow margin – the courts will come into play.
Trump has already said that he would like the Supreme Court to play a proactive role in the event of a contested election. Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s hasty confirmation before the Supreme Court, literally days before Election Day, was aimed at a nine-judge court with a clear conservative bias, which Trump would expect to find in his favor.
If Election Night goes on for days and weeks after litigation, the situation could become more complicated and apprehensions have been expressed about a public order situation.
There has been no precedent for a president refusing to grant the election. But Trump is different: he has never confirmed that he would accept the election result if he loses, and that is the reason why many fear that the transfer of power, if the contest is close and Trump narrowly loses, may not be peaceful. .
© The Indian Express (P) Ltd
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