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Bengaluru, May 26,
Kerala, Punjab and Haryana seem to have crossed the spike in coronavirus cases, says a leading public health specialist, who is waiting for India to keep Covid-19 deaths in less than 8,000 in the country with the strict compliance of the standard protocols and hospitals on high alert.
India should not be seen as one entity when it comes to dealing with Covid-19, because the size of the population across the states and districts varies, the health systems vary, and the level of literacy varies between and within states, said the Professor GVS Murthy, Director Indian Institute of Public Health, Hyderabad.
Therefore, it may be more appropriate to talk about at the state level and at the level of the peak district, he said.
As against the total number of cases per million of population increases in India of 17.6 cases per million April 25 to 99.9 per million on May 25, in Maharashtra, which rose from 61.9 million in April to 383 million at May 25, Professor Murthy, said.
In Tamil Nadu it is the increase of 23.4 per million April 25 to 199.3 million at May 25, and in Gujarat from 48.1 million in April to 219 million on May 25. Delhi has shown the highest increase in the country of 140 million in April 25 to 690 per million on May 25.
“These States of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and new Delhi) seem to be nearing the peak, while those who, like Kerala, Punjab and Haryana seem to have crossed the peak,” Prof said Murthy PTI in an interview.
“From the six states of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh) provide 70 percent of the cases in the country, unless these states peak, country peak may not be reached.
From the current trends, this can occur as early as the beginning of June until as late as the middle of July, of him.
In its assessment of the “possible” COVID-19 deaths in India, the Professor said Murthy evidence of some of the models shows that about 80,000-100,000 deaths have been averted due to the blockage.
He said that the data show that the daily increase in the number of deaths across the country there have been two deaths per million population during the last week.
The majority of governments, Prof Murthy pointed out, have strengthened their health systems to prevent the deaths by providing appropriate care.
“Efforts have also been made for the early identification of severe respiratory illness and influenza-like illness. These are positive indicators that the country will be able to maintain the mortality on the lower side.”
“If the standard protocols are carefully followed and in the hospital facilities remain on high alert, direct COVID-19 deaths must be kept to less than 7,500-8,000 in the present pandemic. That could translate to four or five deaths per million inhabitants,” he said.
In India movement at the 10 ° place in the world in terms of number of cases, said this figure is misleading since the population of the country is much larger than the majority of the nations of Europe together.
“Therefore, it must use a comparable population denominator as cases or deaths per million of population (called the index case or mortality rate). When we do this, the total rate of cases per million population in the India is 101 compared with 6,050 in Spain, 5,098 in the united states, 3,825 in the united kingdom and 3,801 in Italy,” said the Professor Murthy said.
In the same way, the rate of deaths per million population in India is three million euros, compared with 615 in Spain, 542 each one in the united kingdom and Italy, 435 in France and 300 in the united states, he said, adding that most of the countries in the South Asia and Southeast Asia have similar rates as India.
Asked if he thought the COVID-19-induced by the blockade should be lifted completely since 1 June, Murthy once said that steps have been taken to raise to any extent, the same direction that must be followed by the easing in a staggered manner.
The groups of cases, must be identified on a daily basis and the containment measures must be in place for such groups. This has to be a dynamic process and reviewed in the light of new cases that occur in a large number.
“Public meetings should not be allowed for the next couple of months. This includes cinema houses, religious or social events. If these activities have to be open, sophisticated disinfection measures disinfection, uv tunnels, and all people must pass through the same,” he said.
The public transport will need to be available, he said, adding, measures such as the short-distance buses in place of long distance will reduce the duration of contact and may be preferred. “The Meters can be put in operation with appropriate sanitation procedures.” PTI
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