China’s rapid military development means the country is closer to joining the United States and Russia as the leading nations capable of deploying nuclear weapons on land, air and sea, the Pentagon warned in a new report.
China’s progress in upgrading its strategic bombers to carry nuclear payloads puts it on the cusp of achieving a “triad” of launch systems, marking a two-decade investment that coincided with the country’s economic surge, according to an annual report from the Department of Defense to Congress published. on Tuesday.
“Over the next decade, China will expand and diversify its nuclear forces, probably at least doubling its arsenal of nuclear warheads,” according to the 200-page report. “China’s nuclear forces appear to be on a trajectory that exceeds the size of a ‘minimum deterrent’ as described in the PLA’s own writings,” he added, referring to the People’s Liberation Army.
The development of a nuclear triad raises the long-term stakes in the complex relationship between Beijing and Washington. Although the two sides have limited their responses to the current tensions to measures such as economic sanctions, tariffs and tough rhetoric, China’s growing arsenal of nuclear weapons will provide additional justification for US officials who want to accelerate the modernization of US nuclear forces. .
The report comes during one of the most tense periods in US-China relations in decades. President Donald Trump has repeatedly accused China of not doing enough to stop the Covid-19 pandemic that has now killed an estimated 184,000 Americans. The two nations are also at odds over Beijing’s deal with Hong Kong, the use of technology like 5G and apps including TikTok that are linked to China, and disputed claims in the South China Sea.
‘Alarmist view’
Analysts questioned what Amy Woolf, the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service’s chief nuclear weapons analyst, called the report’s “alarmist view.”
The United States “has long believed” that, at least for the United States and Russia, “a triad is stabilizing because it reduces the vulnerability of the retaliatory force, reduces the risk of crisis instability, and strengthens deterrence,” he said. Woolf.
Kingston Reif, director of the Arms Control Association, said the Department of Defense estimate of the size of China’s warhead stocks is “even smaller than open source estimates.” He said “it cannot be overstated” that Russia’s arsenal is “much bigger and more dangerous.”
The Trump administration has been pushing for China to participate in its nuclear arms control talks with Russia.
As part of President Xi Jinping’s efforts to build a “world-class” army by 2049, the Defense Department report says the People’s Liberation Army has already reached parity with the United States or has surpassed it by at least three key areas: shipbuilding, conventional ground ballistics and cruise missiles and integrated air defense systems.
The Chinese government “has mustered the resources, technology and political will over the past two decades to strengthen and modernize the PLA in almost every respect,” according to the report. Increasingly, he says, the Xi government sees the military as having a key role to play in supporting China’s foreign policy efforts.
While the country has an overseas military base, in the East African nation of Djibouti, it is highly likely that the Chinese government “is already considering and planning additional overseas military logistics facilities to support forces. naval, air and land, “the report said.
“There is no area that I know of that is off the table,” Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Chad Sbragia said in a briefing to reporters before the report was released.
China-Taiwan balance
A big Congressional interest in the report is the Pentagon’s assessment of the military balance between China and Taiwan.
China’s official military budget last year was 15 times that of the island’s democracy “and much of it was focused on developing the ability to unify Taiwan by force,” the report says. China “appears willing to defer the use of military force as long as it considers that unification” with the island “could be negotiated in the long term and the costs of the conflict outweigh the benefits,” the report said.
China’s current nuclear arsenal includes 100 silo or road mobile ICBMs, up to six Jin-class nuclear missile submarines capable of carrying 12 missiles each, and a new air-rechargeable H-6N long-range bomber. The bomber is an upgrade from a previous model and comes with a modified fuselage “that allows it to carry a drone or air-launched ballistic missile that may be nuclear-capable,” according to the report.
Even if by 2030 China more than doubles a reserve that is now “estimated to be in the low 200s,” as the Pentagon projects, it will be much smaller than the US’s 3,800 warheads and Russia’s 4,300, according to data from the Federation of Scientists. Americans. .
The Pentagon also pointed to US concerns about China’s nuclear doctrine. As its capabilities improve, the report says, Beijing is believed to put more of its nuclear forces in a “launch on alert” posture, allowing it to respond more quickly to threats.
China for decades has maintained a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy, “although there is ambiguity about the conditions under which China would act outside” of that policy, the US military said.
The report also said that “significant gaps and deficiencies” remain in China’s military capabilities that could take decades to fix. However, the Pentagon warned, the country has a “strategic end state for which it is working, which if achieved and the accompanying military modernization is not addressed, will have serious implications for the national interests of the United States and the security of the United States. rules-based international order “. . ”
US ‘Unpredictability’
China views global instability and unpredictability in the United States as key threats it faces, according to the Department of Defense. He said Chinese leaders believe there is greater political will in the United States to “confront Beijing on issues where the interests of the United States and the People’s Republic of China are enemies.”
The Pentagon will likely use the strong emphasis on China’s nuclear upgrades to pressure lawmakers and the public to support the massive reinvestment already underway in modernized nuclear weapons. This includes the B-21 bomber, an $ 85 billion land-based strategic deterrence ICBM program, and the $ 128 billion Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine.
China has an operational ground-based anti-satellite missile intended to target low-Earth orbit satellites, according to the Pentagon, and “China probably intends to seek additional ASAT weapons capable of destroying satellites up to geosynchronous Earth orbit,” or 22,236 miles ( 35,785 kilometers.)
The report also reveals that last year:
- China launched more ballistic missiles for testing and training “than the rest of the world combined.”
- The PLA attempted to obtain random access memory chips and aviation and anti-submarine warfare technologies, both through theft and by taking advantage of legitimate joint ventures.
- China deployed a limited number of its first J-20 stealth fighter. It plans upgrades that will increase the number of air-to-air missiles carried in stealth mode and add super cruise capability by installing the native WS-15 engine.
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