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TOKYO: The collapse of North Korea has been wrongly predicted for decades.
Some said it would happen after the fighting ended in the Korean War in 1953. Others thought it would be during a famine in the 1990s or when national founder Kim Il Sung died in 1994. And when the death of their son, Kim Jong Il pushed a little – known 20-somethings in power in 2011, some felt the end was near.
It is no surprise then that recent rumors that leader Kim Jong Un is seriously ill have caused a similar wringing of hands.
South Korea believes Kim is alive and in control, and most analysts agree that even if she were not, Kim’s powerful sister Kim Yo Jong would likely take over, possibly with the help of officials selected.
Many experts say North Korea would weather the transition just as it has with any other upheaval.
But what if it were not? Here is a look at how other nations could face a catastrophe in North Korea.
United States
If the government in Pyongyang collapses, a contingency plan between the United States and South Korea called OPLAN 5029 would come into play.
The plan is aimed at securing North Korea’s border and nuclear weapons if the government cannot function or if control of those weapons becomes uncertain.
“The million dollar question is: when do you invoke OPLAN and what indicators do you trust to do so? Because the operation of ‘securing the country’ of one country may appear to the other nation as a ‘plan of invasion’. And then all hell can break loose, “said Vipin Narang, a North Korean nuclear specialist at MIT.
The United States’ greatest concern is the use, theft, or sale of North Korea’s nuclear reserves.
“If the United States has no plans to enter and secure and retrieve North Korea’s nuclear weapons, as long as we know where they are, then we are not doing our job,” said Ralph Cossa, chairman emeritus of the Forum of Experts group. Pacific in Hawaii. “Beyond that, it makes little sense for the United States and / or South Korea to get involved in North Korea’s internal power struggles.”
The danger of a misstep by the United States during a collapse would be enormous. Possible problems would include coordinating with the South Korean military at a time when Chinese troops were also likely to be operating in the North and financing immense military and humanitarian efforts.
United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently said, when asked about Kim’s health, that Washington will continue to pursue complete denuclearization, “regardless of what is happening within North Korea regarding its leadership.”
China
China is the main source of aid and diplomatic backing from the North and believes that political stability in its impoverished neighbor is crucial to its own security.
Although China accepted the United Nations sanctions on northern weapons programs, it is wary of anything that could collapse the economy or topple the ruling party and potentially spark conflict on its border and a flood of crossing refugees.
China in recent years has strengthened its border defenses with the North. But many people living on the Chinese side of the border are ethnically Korean, raising fears of instability or even territorial loss if the border is opened.
However, China’s biggest concern is believed to be the possibility of US and South Korean troops operating along its border, a concern that led China to enter the Korean War 70 years ago.
However, a change in leadership in North Korea is unlikely to lead to major changes in the relationship, said Lu Chao, a professor at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences in China.
South Korea
In addition to joint plans with the US Army. In the US, South Korea’s internal preparations for a collapse of North Korea are concerned with how to host an influx of refugees and how to establish an emergency administrative headquarters in the North.
According to leaked US diplomatic cables, South Korea’s then-presidential adviser, Kim Sung-hwan, told a top US diplomat in 2009 that the South Korean constitution states that North Korea is part of South Korean territory and that “some Scholars believe that if the North collapses, some sort of ‘interim entity’ should be created to provide local government and control the travel of North Korean citizens. ”
When recently asked about contingency plans, the South Korean Unification Ministry said it “prepares for all possibilities.”
A big problem is that, unlike China, South Korea cannot mobilize the large number of soldiers necessary to stabilize North Korea.
“If the North Korean regime is on the verge of collapse, China will probably send troops to its ally and establish a pro-Beijing regime in the country,” the South Korean newspaper JoongAng Ilbo said in a recent editorial. “Seoul must do everything possible to minimize China’s intervention in the North based on a strong alliance with” Washington.
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Some said it would happen after the fighting ended in the Korean War in 1953. Others thought it would be during a famine in the 1990s or when national founder Kim Il Sung died in 1994. And when the death of their son, Kim Jong Il pushed a little – known 20-somethings in power in 2011, some felt the end was near.
It is no surprise then that recent rumors that leader Kim Jong Un is seriously ill have caused a similar wringing of hands.
South Korea believes Kim is alive and in control, and most analysts agree that even if she were not, Kim’s powerful sister Kim Yo Jong would likely take over, possibly with the help of officials selected.
Many experts say North Korea would weather the transition just as it has with any other upheaval.
But what if it were not? Here is a look at how other nations could face a catastrophe in North Korea.
United States
If the government in Pyongyang collapses, a contingency plan between the United States and South Korea called OPLAN 5029 would come into play.
The plan is aimed at securing North Korea’s border and nuclear weapons if the government cannot function or if control of those weapons becomes uncertain.
“The million dollar question is: when do you invoke OPLAN and what indicators do you trust to do so? Because the operation of ‘securing the country’ of one country may appear to the other nation as a ‘plan of invasion’. And then all hell can break loose, “said Vipin Narang, a North Korean nuclear specialist at MIT.
The United States’ greatest concern is the use, theft, or sale of North Korea’s nuclear reserves.
“If the United States has no plans to enter and secure and retrieve North Korea’s nuclear weapons, as long as we know where they are, then we are not doing our job,” said Ralph Cossa, chairman emeritus of the Forum of Experts group. Pacific in Hawaii. “Beyond that, it makes little sense for the United States and / or South Korea to get involved in North Korea’s internal power struggles.”
The danger of a misstep by the United States during a collapse would be enormous. Possible problems would include coordinating with the South Korean military at a time when Chinese troops were also likely to be operating in the North and financing immense military and humanitarian efforts.
United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently said, when asked about Kim’s health, that Washington will continue to pursue complete denuclearization, “regardless of what is happening within North Korea regarding its leadership.”
China
China is the main source of aid and diplomatic backing from the North and believes that political stability in its impoverished neighbor is crucial to its own security.
Although China accepted the United Nations sanctions on northern weapons programs, it is wary of anything that could collapse the economy or topple the ruling party and potentially spark conflict on its border and a flood of crossing refugees.
China in recent years has strengthened its border defenses with the North. But many people living on the Chinese side of the border are ethnically Korean, raising fears of instability or even territorial loss if the border is opened.
However, China’s biggest concern is believed to be the possibility of US and South Korean troops operating along its border, a concern that led China to enter the Korean War 70 years ago.
However, a change in leadership in North Korea is unlikely to lead to major changes in the relationship, said Lu Chao, a professor at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences in China.
South Korea
In addition to joint plans with the US Army. In the US, South Korea’s internal preparations for a collapse of North Korea are concerned with how to host an influx of refugees and how to establish an emergency administrative headquarters in the North.
According to leaked US diplomatic cables, South Korea’s then-presidential adviser, Kim Sung-hwan, told a top US diplomat in 2009 that the South Korean constitution states that North Korea is part of South Korean territory and that “some Scholars believe that if the North collapses, some sort of ‘interim entity’ should be created to provide local government and control the travel of North Korean citizens. ”
When recently asked about contingency plans, the South Korean Unification Ministry said it “prepares for all possibilities.”
A big problem is that, unlike China, South Korea cannot mobilize the large number of soldiers necessary to stabilize North Korea.
“If the North Korean regime is on the verge of collapse, China will probably send troops to its ally and establish a pro-Beijing regime in the country,” the South Korean newspaper JoongAng Ilbo said in a recent editorial. “Seoul must do everything possible to minimize China’s intervention in the North based on a strong alliance with” Washington.
