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The number of new cases exceeded 3,500 for the third consecutive day. After declining last month, India’s coronavirus trajectory has accelerated this month, with new infections and deaths increasing faster in India than in most other severely affected countries.
India’s case count has roughly doubled in the past eleven days. This is a much slower rate compared to early April, when cases doubled every four days. Deaths have also seen a slower increase compared to the trend in early April, but have picked up the pace in recent weeks. The death toll in India for covid-19 as of Wednesday morning was 2,415, roughly double what it was eleven days ago.
At this month’s compound daily growth rate so far, the number of cases could rise to 100,000 by next Monday, one day after the end of the current phase of the blockade. The continued increase in cases poses a serious challenge to India’s medical capacity and overburdened health system.
At 18,381, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases, according to the health ministry update this morning. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.
The number of active cases in the second most affected state, Tamil Nadu is 6,523. The next state on the list, Gujarat, has 5,120 active cases, followed by 5,041 in Delhi and 1,901 in Madhya Pradesh. The top five states together represent 78 percent of active cases nationwide, and the top ten states account for 94 percent of all cases.
Nationwide, the active case count was 47,480 as of today morning. The numbers have not yet peaked and the statewide distribution could change in the coming days as testing increases in all states.
In the past seven days, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Maharashtra have seen the highest peak in cases among the top ten states with the majority of cases. These three states account for 77 percent of all new active cases in this period. During the same period, deaths have increased the most in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. These three states account for 50 percent of all covid-related deaths in the past seven days. However, Uttar Pradesh, along with Andhra Pradesh, is also one of only two states in the top ten where the active case count has dropped in this period. The seven-day increase in Madhya Pradesh was only 1 percent.
Among the top ten states with the most active cases, case fatality rates are highest in West Bengal (9.1%), Gujarat (6%), and Madhya Pradesh (5.6%). India’s case fatality rate continues to hover around 3.2%. Among all states, case fatality rates are lowest in Tamil Nadu (0.7%), Odisha (0.7%), and Kerala (0.8%).
In the past two days, the districts of Mumbai, Chennai, Pune, Ahmedabad and Thane have seen the largest increase in nationally confirmed cases. These five districts account for 54 percent of new cases during this period, according to data collected by howindialives.com the night before. Other districts that have seen a sharp increase in the past two days are Indore in Madhya Pradesh and Kancheepuram and Thiruvallur in Tamil Nadu.
So far, 543 districts have confirmed cases in the country. Mumbai (14,899 cases) has reported the highest number of cases nationwide among all districts, followed by Ahmedabad (6,353) in Gujarat. Chennai (4,888) in Tamil Nadu, Pune (2,929) in Maharashtra, and Thane (2,592) in Maharashtra are the other main districts. These top five districts now account for 48 percent of confirmed cases in the country.
Indore (2,016) in Madhya Pradesh, Jaipur (1,267) in Rajasthan, Kolkata (1,068) in West Bengal, Surat (944) in Gujarat and Jodhpur (936) in Rajasthan are the top ten high ranking districts best districts. The top ten districts account for 57 percent of all confirmed cases nationwide. District data for Delhi are not available and therefore do not form part of this list.
Most of India’s hot spots so far have been wealthy urban districts, with wealthier states more affected than the rest.
Meanwhile, the global coronavirus case count has crossed 4.2 million even as some severely affected countries begin to relax blocking measures after more than a month.
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