As the political crisis in Nepal intensifies, the Chinese ambassador in Kathmandu, Hou Yanqi, has sparked talk that China may be making one last attempt to hold together the multitude of warring communist leaders. The ambassador met with Nepal’s President BD Bhandari on Tuesday, who wasted no time in approving Prime Minister KP Oli’s recommendation to dissolve Parliament.
While ToI was unable to independently confirm this by any official authority, the ambassador, according to a source in Kathmandu, also met with PK Dahal Prachanda, co-chair of the ruling. Communist Party of Nepal (NCP) and one of the main protagonists of the political drama that takes place in Nepal.
Hou’s meeting with Bhandari was said to have been scheduled in advance, but it is well known that the ambassador has worked overtime to avoid a split in the ruling party. She had met Oli last month in the middle of her confrontation with rival Dahal after the latter listed Oli’s alleged failures as prime minister and co-chair of the party in a document he presented to the party and called for his resignation. Dahal was elected the party’s parliamentary leader on Wednesday.
Hou also generated controversy after he held a series of meetings with PCN leaders in July, at a time when 30 of the 44 members of the party’s permanent committee were demanding his resignation.
The NCP was formed in 2018 with the merger of the CPN (Maoist Center) of Dahal and the CPN-Marxist-Leninist Unified of Oli (CPN-UML). It is no secret that China has worked to keep the alliance of “ideologically like-minded” forces intact. However, Beijing faces a difficult decision as the position of its favorite Oli grows increasingly unstable. Claiming a two-thirds majority in the NCP, Dahal has relieved Oli of his position as co-chair of the party and demanded that the electoral commission recognize his faction as the legitimate NCP.
If the party is divided, China will still want the communist parties to run for elections together, even if that means giving up Oli. Hou’s meeting with Dahal, who ultimately disconnected Oli, is significant in that context.
In addition to the focus on trade and connectivity, China has also worked to build defense ties with Nepal, as demonstrated again by the Defense Minister. Wei Fenghevisit Kathmandu last month.
India may perhaps be able to afford to be much less nervous about the situation despite signs of a rapprochement with the Oli government in recent months, including a visit by Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla to Kathmandu.
Oli is still considered to have dealt perhaps the most serious blow to ties with India in recent times with his decision to unilaterally issue a new political map of Nepal showing the territories of India on it. After resuming bilateral engagements with India, the Oli government has continued to describe the map as one of the highlights of its foreign policy. Nepal, however, has justified its decision by citing India’s reluctance to hold a dialogue on the Kalapani border dispute.
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