Nasa EOSDIS of North India from November 5, 2019 (top) when the highest number. of fires were reported last year and on October 17, 2020, the highest so far this year
First, the good news. Rice is harvested early in Punjab and Haryana. Data from the Punjab Mandi Board reveals that 55% more rice reached the state mandi as of October 20 than in the corresponding period last year: 73.8 lakh metric tons compared to 47.5 LMT in 2019. What this means is that farmers have a longer window of time to plant the winter crop.
“It is unlikely that we will see large peaks in stubble burning unlike in previous years. The burning of rice residues is likely to be more evenly distributed over a longer period, ”said ML Jat, senior scientist at the nonprofit International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (better known by its acronym in Spanish, Cimmyt).
The rice is harvested earlier this year, which means that farmers have a longer window of time to plant the crop.
The early harvest has also meant more agricultural fires at the beginning of the burning season, which generally lasts from early October through the third week of November, peaking around the first week of November. NASA’s VIIRS satellite detected 10,987 fires in Punjab and Haryana in the first three weeks of October (1-21) this year, nearly double the number recorded during the same period in the past two years.
That is bad news. There is still no indication that the practice of stubble burning has been substantially reduced (at least in Punjab) despite the efforts of the Center and state governments. Based on trends so far, and with just over a third of Punjab’s rice crop being harvested so far, agricultural fires are likely to increase in the coming days.
A late Diwali this year (November 14) is being viewed as a blessing, as the festival will not coincide with what is generally a peak period of agricultural fires from the last week of October to November 10. But it also poses a threat, some have warned. experts.
A late Diwali this year could help curb pollution as the festival will not coincide with the period of large agricultural fires from October last week until November 10.
Diwali this year falls at a dangerous time for air quality in NCR. The period between November 10 and 20 usually sees an increase in pollution, coinciding with a drop in temperatures with the onset of winter. Diwali in mid-November, even if it’s relatively clean, will only add to the pollution load. Remember, there is also a huge increase in vehicle movement ahead of the festival, ”said a scientist from a major government pollution monitoring body.
The data from the last two years confirm this. Last year, when Diwali fell on October 27, Delhi experienced severe air days after the festival (October 29-November 4), as well as mid-November. Air quality dropped to “severe” from November 12-15. In 2018, when Diwali was on November 7, Delhi had severe air days from November 9 to 13.
Of course, it is weather conditions such as temperature, humidity, and wind speed and direction that determine whether pollutants accumulate in the air or dissipate vertically or horizontally through the atmosphere. IMD’s extended range forecast says that minimum temperatures are likely to remain below normal for the next several weeks. The other factors are difficult to predict beyond a few days.
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