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After declining last month, India’s coronavirus trajectory has accelerated this month, with new infections and deaths increasing faster in India than in most other countries.
India’s case count has now roughly doubled since early May. This is a much slower rate compared to early April, when cases doubled every four days. Deaths have also seen a slower increase compared to the trend in early April, but have picked up the pace in recent weeks. Covid-19’s death toll in India as of Monday morning was 2,293, roughly double what it was eleven days ago.
At the current compound daily growth rate, the number of cases could increase to 100,000 in the next six days. The continued increase in cases poses a serious challenge to India’s medical capacity and overburdened health system.
At 17,747, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases, according to the health ministry update this morning. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.
The number of active cases in the second most affected state, Tamil Nadu, increased 15% in a single day to reach 5,898. The next state on the list, Gujarat, has 5,248 active cases, followed by 5,031 in Delhi and 1,817 in Madhya Pradesh. The top five states together account for 77 percent of active cases nationwide, and the top ten states account for 94 percent of all cases.
Nationwide, the active case count was 46,008 as of today morning. The numbers have not yet peaked and the statewide distribution could change in the coming days as testing increases in all states.
In the past seven days, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Punjab have seen the highest peak in cases among the top ten states with the most cases. These three states account for 77 percent of all new active cases in this period. During the same period, deaths have increased the most in Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh. These three states account for 34 percent of all covid-related deaths in the past seven days.
Among the ten states with the highest number of active cases, death rates are highest in West Bengal (9.2%), Gujarat (6%) and Madhya Pradesh (5.8%). India’s fatality rate is now 3.2%. Among all states, case fatality rates are lowest in Tamil Nadu (0.7%), Odisha (0.7%), and Kerala (0.8%).
In the past two days, the districts of Mumbai, Chennai, Pune, Ahmedabad and Thane have seen the largest increase in nationally confirmed cases. These five districts account for 56 percent of new cases during this period, according to data collected by howindialives.com the night before. Other districts that have seen a sharp increase in the past two days are Indore, Kancheepuram, and Thiruvallur in Tamil Nadu.
So far, 539 districts have confirmed cases in the country. Mumbai (14,473 cases) has reported the highest number of cases nationwide among all districts, followed by Ahmedabad (6,086) in Gujarat. Chennai (4,378) in Tamil Nadu, Pune (2,929) in Maharashtra, and Thane (2,592) in Maharashtra are the other main districts. These top five districts now account for 48 percent of confirmed cases in the country.
Indore (1,935) in Madhya Pradesh, Jaipur (1,233) in Rajasthan, Kolkata (1,029) in West Bengal, Surat (914) in Gujarat and Jodhpur (911) in Rajasthan are the other top ten districts on the list of ten best districts. The top ten districts account for 57 percent of all confirmed cases nationwide. District data for Delhi are not available and therefore do not form part of this list.
Most of India’s hot spots so far have been wealthy urban districts, with wealthier states more affected than the rest.
Meanwhile, the global coronavirus case count is approaching 4.2 million, even as some severely affected countries begin to relax blocking measures after more than a month.
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