Updated: December 23, 2020 9:37:05 am
A Nepalese protester burns an effigy of Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Oli in front of the parliament building in Kathmandu, Nepal, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2020. (AP Photo: Niranjan Shrestha)
On Sunday, Prime Minister of Nepal KP Oli recommended dissolution of the House of Representatives, the lowest in Parliament, a measure quickly approved by President Bidhya Devi Bhandari.
This effectively ended the forced unity among the left forces that had led to the creation of the great Communist Party of Nepal three years ago. It plunged national politics into confusion and the five-year constitution in uncertainty, raising questions about the haste with which the president approved Oli’s recommendation.
Oli took the plunge when he realized that a factional dispute within the party had reached a point of no return and he faced possible expulsion as party head and prime minister. Since then, a dozen petitions have been filed in the Supreme Court challenging the dissolution with two years remaining of the current House’s term. Each faction has also approached the Electoral Commission claiming that it is the true party.
The battles of Oli
Oli is fighting a losing battle in the group. He has stated that the next elections will be held on April 30 and May 10 next year with him at the helm of an interim government, but his fate will be decided by stirring up crowds and the Supreme Court. There is also a movement for the restoration of Nepal as a Hindu kingdom.
His movement has created bitterness between the separatist communist group that he leads and other parties. On Monday night, Oli had his supporters lock up the party office, effectively putting it under his control, but according to the numbers in the dissolved Parliament, the Central Secretariat, the Standing Committee and the Central Committee, Oli is a minority. . But with Parliament dissolved and with a president seen as favorable to him, Oli will have the power to rule without being accountable to anyone.
Nepalese students affiliated with the Nepal Students Union burn an effigy of Prime Minister KP Oli during a protest in Kathmandu, Nepal, Sunday, December 20, 2020 (AP Photo: Niranjan Shrestha)
The dissolution came hours before a Standing Committee meeting that was expected to order an investigation into the corruption charges brought against him by party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda.
Unification and its end
Prachanda led the Maoist insurgency for a decade (1996-2006) before joining mainstream politics. Oli was a fierce critic of the policy of violence that caused more than 17,000 deaths. But Oli approached the Maoists in 2017 for a merger between their parties, anticipating the possibility of an alliance between the Maoists and the Nepalese Congress that may have hindered Oli’s prime ministerial ambitions.
Oli led the Communist Party of Nepal-Marxist Leninist Unified, and Prachanda represented the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist). After the merger, the two leaders agreed that they would lead the government in turn, a promise that Oli did not keep at the end of his two and a half years, thus sowing the seeds of separation. Now, as a division seems inevitable, Oli hopes to continue in power with those who follow him.
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Questions about the Constitution
What happened has left a question mark on the 2015 Constitution and its key characteristics such as federalism, secularism and the republic. There are already popular protests in the streets.
The split in a party with a two-thirds majority has raised concerns that it could lead to a systemic collapse. “We will bet on a decisive national movement to get rid of this Constitution,” said Balakrishna Neupane, convenor of an ongoing citizen movement.
Nepalese students chant slogans against Prime Minister Oli during a protest in Kathmandu, Nepal, Sunday, December 20, 2020 (AP Photo: Niranjan Shrestha)
Constitution and dissolution
Dissolution of the Chamber is not new in Nepal, but this is the first instance of its kind after the new 2015 Constitution that provides safeguards against dissolution. “The new constitution does not foresee such a step without exploring the formation of an alternative government,” said Dr. Bhimarjun Acharya, a prominent constitutional lawyer.
The 1991 Constitution, eliminated in 2006, had provisions for the dissolution of Parliament in the prerogative of the Prime Minister. During the time it was in force, Parliament was dissolved three times. The first parliament elected in 1991 was dissolved on the recommendation of Prime Minister GP Koirala after he failed to get a vote on the king’s motion of thanks passed in the House. The Supreme Court confirmed that dissolution.
But in 1995, the Supreme Court rejected the dissolution of Prime Minister Manmohan Adhikary after a vote of no confidence was filed but before the loss of the majority was proven. The court held that the executive had no right to seize an issue that was being considered by the legislature.
The third time, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba dissolved Parliament in 2002 and the Supreme Court ratified it. King Gyanendra revived Parliament in April 2006.
At stake the opposition
The opposition Nepalese Congress and the Madhes-based Janata Samajbadi Party have reason to hope that an early poll will grant them a larger space in Parliament. But he fears that the likely street protest and violence, in addition to the onset of rain in late April and early May, could be used as an excuse to postpone the elections further.
“I doubt that the elections will be held on the prescribed dates,” said Shekhar Koirala, a member of the central committee of the Nepal Congress. However, the Nepalese Congress or the Janata Samajbadi Party have not been very proactive in Parliament to counter the government.
The army
The Nepalese Army has made it clear that it will remain neutral in the ongoing political events. This implies that if Oli tries to govern with the help of the security forces to maintain law and order and contain the protests, it is not known how far the Army will go.
The China factor
China has been a major factor in Nepal’s domestic politics since 2006. It is seen as exerting pressure, visible or secret, to avoid division. China has also invested in crucial sectors such as trade and investment, energy, tourism, and post-earthquake reconstruction, and is Nepal’s largest contributor of FDI. It has increased its presence in Nepal due to the perception that India played a crucial role in the political change of 2006.
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