NEW DELHI: While India has not been a factor or played a role in the current phase of political turbulence in Nepal, political and government sources here believe that Nepal should take the democratic route, which in this case would mean elections, to resolve the issue. stagnation.
It is also becoming clear that although China may have failed in its mission in Nepal for the time being, Chinese participation in Nepalese politics has grown enough in recent years to ensure that all shades of political opinion can be influenced by China.
All political analysts in Kathmandu agree that Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli currently holds the majority of the cards: on dissolution of the House, in elections, etc. It remains to be seen how he will play those cards, either with the help of China or India. Oli can play the Nationalist card or the Hindu card at will. It is also China’s largest investment in Nepalese politics.
Sources in Kathmandu say that China has yet to give up the game. Having sponsored many political leaders in Nepal, China’s influence is quite deep and wide. India’s role is currently limited to ensuring that New Delhi is not a factor in the current turmoil or even the upcoming election campaign.
A formal split in the NCP has yet to be announced, but sources say the backroom machinations are in full swing. They point to several evolving scenarios in Nepal. First, the division would affect the electoral campaigns of the factions. The electoral commission would have to decide who gets the CPN election symbol, which could be a fight. You could end up with both factions getting different symbols.
Second, sources say that the Supreme Court may have to decide the question of the dissolution of Parliament. Also, they say, Oli could drag the current state beyond May to November before the actual elections are held.
If there is a question about having a neutral party as interim prime minister, the Chief Justice could be an interim prime minister, which could raise a whole new set of constitutional and political challenges.
.
