When the campaign for the third and final phase of the Bihar assembly elections ended on Thursday, both the main camps, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Grand Alliance of the Opposition (GA), exuded confidence about their prospects even when the smaller parties and formations realized that they were able to emerge as kingmakers in a close election.
The NDA comprises the Janata Dal (United), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular (HAM-S) of former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) of Mukesh Sahani, popularly known as ‘Son of Mallah’.
In addition to Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, the constituents of the ‘grand alliance’ are the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI (M) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist). or CPI (ML).
Other formations in the fray are the Democratic Progressive Alliance (PDA), led by Jan Adhikar (JAP) Party chief Rajesh Ranjan, popularly known as Pappu Yadav, and Bhim Azad Samaj Party Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad. The Grand Secular Democratic Front (GDSF) is made up of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RSLP), All the Indian Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), the Jantantrik Party and the Samajwadi Janata Democratic Party. Dal.
An important factor this time is the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which left the NDA in the state and has put forward candidates in 137 of the 243 seats. Party chief Chirag Paswan has bitterly criticized Prime Minister Nitish Kumar, has run the NDA rebels as candidates against Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) in many seats and is counting on a wave in favor of his late father and Minister of the Union, Ram Vilas Paswan. In the last state elections of 2010 and 2015, the LJP obtained 6.7% and 4.8% of the votes, respectively.
Traditionally, Bihar’s two main formations have obtained between two-thirds and three-quarters of the votes, according to data from the Trivedi Center for Political Data. In 2005, the NDA won 36% of the vote, while the RJD + won 31%; in 2010, the NDA won 391% while the RJD + won 25.6% while in 2015, the NDA won 34% of the votes while the AG won 41.8%. In the last three elections to the assembly, the so-called third front managed to keep at least a quarter of the votes.
There are two key questions for large alliances: Will the LJP consume the votes of JD (U), and will AIMIM-BSP harm the GA, especially in the Dalit-dominated Muslim region of Seemanchal?
The NDA is confident of its victory.
“The choice is between NDA and Mahagathbandhan. The presence of new alliances is not new for Bihar, but BJP and JD (U) have a 30-40% vote share, which is higher than the 10-20% share of these smaller parties with limited influence. ”Said a senior BJP official. official.
The JD (U) disdains the small factions that alter their vote bank.
“Aside from the fact that Nitish Kumar has changed the face of Bihar and brought development, it cannot be denied that he has considerable influence among the Mahadalits (a sub-category of programmed castes and together with the Dalits they account for about 18% of the state population), Kushwaha-Koeri-Kurmi combination which is about 12-14%, apart from women, ”said a leader of JD (U).
A second BJP official in Delhi claimed that the NDA will cross the 122 majority mark.
“The demonstrations by Prime Minister Narendra Modi infused new energy and gave new impetus to the election campaign. The rallies galvanized and charged the atmosphere, “said the leader on condition of anonymity.
A third official pointed to the high turnout – 55.69% in phase 1 and 55.7% in phase – to indicate that the NDA will return to power.
The BJP is confident that its ticket distribution formula, which gave representation to all castes, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s development agenda, will tip the outcome in favor of the NDA. “There are some seats where the contest is closed, there are some districts where the caste matrix is a bit complicated, but people are now voting on more important issues like development and jobs that only the NDA can provide,” the official said. .
The Grand Alliance said it is confident that it will win a two-thirds majority.
RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav even listed his priorities as prime minister: providing one million jobs and enacting a law to overturn the recent farm laws passed by the Center. “On November 10, Bihar will witness a new dawn,” said the RJD leader.
Yadav also dismissed speculation that LJP, BSP, AIMIM and RLSP will affect his outlook. “Biharis has the highest political awareness in the country and these BJP parachute alliances A, B, C will have no impact,” he said.
Congressional leaders echoed Yadav’s views, stating that the GA will win about 140 seats.
“Muslims view AIMIM as a vote-katwa (vote divider) party and have immense faith in the leadership Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav,” said Congress leader Mohammad Shamim Akhtar.
AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi contested that.
“We fought against Shiv Sena in Aurangabad (Maharashtra) and we won. Now Congress shares power with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and that is fine with these so-called secular parties. This is pure hypocrisy. If you support them, then you are secular and if not, you are communal, ”he said.
Mukesh Sahni of VIP and Upendra Kushwaha of RLSP also argued that the third and fourth fronts should not be underestimated.
“Tejashwi got the party (RJD) in virasat (inheritance). His father Lalu Prasad was a great leader, but he lacks experience and discipline, ”Sahni said.
“The people of Bihar want an end to Nitish Kumar’s 15-year misrule and, on the other hand, the GA does not have a credible face,” Kushwaha added.
Political analysts agreed that the fight was largely between the NDA and the AG. “The smaller alliances that do not have a pan-Bihar presence are not strong enough to dent the support base of the NDA or Mahagathbandhan,” said Patna analyst Ajay Kumar Jha.
Analyst Manisha Priyam said that these factions are representatives of the policy specified by the state. “It is the poor and smaller sectors that reflect themselves through smaller formations,” he said.
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