One of the wettest monsoons in Mumbai history can be expected to withdraw from the state between October 9 and 15, according to the meteorological department.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), in June this year, revised the date of the withdrawal of the monsoon from southwest Mumbai to nine days. The new withdrawal date is October 9, compared to the previous one, scheduled for September 29. This means that the monsoon will take a little longer than normal.
“Withdrawal from Rajasthan and the surrounding areas of northwestern India is expected from September 28 onwards. Following the visible trend, a sharp decrease in rainfall activity in central India can be expected from the second week of October, and the retreat over Mumbai first and (then) the rest of Maharashtra can probably be expected to mid-October, “said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, CEO, IMD.
KS Hosalikar, IMD Western Region Deputy Managing Director said: “Based on our extended rain forecast through October 22, a significant reduction in rainfall is expected between October 9-15, indicative of withdrawal symptoms from the monsoon. There is a possibility that the retreat will begin around that time. “
Independent forecasters said larger global climatic factors were responsible for the marginally late retreat over the west coast and central India, such as La Niña conditions, a phenomenon when the western Pacific Ocean warms creating an area of low pressure near Australia making the Indian Ocean winds stronger. equatorial dynamics that keeps the southwest monsoon circulation active.
“Out-of-season showers during the first week of October can cause damage to crops throughout the interior of Maharashtra that farmers need to be careful of,” said Professor Sridhar Balasubramanian, from the Department of Mechanical Engineering and Climate Studies at IDPs from India Institute of Technology, Mumbai.
Meanwhile, Maharashtra has seen 18% excess rainfall so far this monsoon. Among the weather stations along the Konkan coast, the suburbs of Mumbai have witnessed the second wettest monsoon in history with 3,681.4mm of rain between June 1 and September 27.
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Mumbai suburbs have seen 70% excess rainfall so far this season – more than 1,507.2mm more rain than the Santacruz weather station typically receives over four months (June-September).
Similarly, all stations throughout Konkan have recorded excess rain with South Mumbai receiving 61% additional rain, Sindhudurg 54%, Ratangiri 25%, Thane 20%, Raigad 17% and Palghar 14%. .
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Elsewhere in the state, central Maharashtra received a 32% excess rainfall and Ahmednagar recorded a large 82% excess. Marathwada, which had witnessed poor rainfall in 2017 and 2018, received a 31% excess rain this season. In all of Maharashtra, only two districts have witnessed poor rainfall: Akola (26% poor) and Yavatmal (23% poor), both in Vidarbha district.
The monsoon retreat date for other prominent Maharashtra cities varies between October 6-11.
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