MUMBAI: After being the worst Covid-19 hotspot in India for most of 2020, Mumbai starts the new year on a good note: a positivity rate of less than 5% in December. According to data from the BMC public health department as of December 29, the overall positivity rate in December was 4.59%. About 4.3 lakh of Covid-19 tests were conducted between December 1 and December 29, with 19,744 people testing positive.
The 5% mark is the rule of thumb established by the World Health Organization for governments; 5% positivity for two weeks means the facility can be reopened.
For a city that has had a positivity rate of 20% or 30% in the initial period of the pandemic, the 5% rate is encouraging, city health officials said. In fact, the positivity rate in Mumbai peak periods (May-June and September) was so high that the overall positivity rate in the February 3-December 30 period is still high at 12.42%. Around 23 lakh of Covid-19 tests have been conducted in the city in this period.
In December, the city reached a milestone in terms of daily testing: on December 20, 22,654 tests were performed in a single day, while on December 22, 25,138 tests were performed, the highest in the city so far.
The lowest positivity rate for a single day was December 28, when 13,860 tests were performed with 537 patients who tested positive (3.8% rate).
The change in the Mumbai Covid curve was first noticed in November around Diwali. For more than a week after Diwali day on November 14, the positivity rate among daily Covid-19 tests was around 7%.
BMC Executive Health Director Dr. Mangala Gomare said: “In December, we performed the largest number of tests ever, averaging more than 16,000 tests per day.” She said BMC teams have been testing domestic and international air passengers. “We are testing in train stations and crowded places. Despite such activity, the positivity rate has been consistently low in December, ”he said.
However, Dr. Shashank Joshi, a member of the state task force on Covid-19, said there are two reasons to remain on guard. One is the appearance of the highly contagious new strain in the UK and another is the lower temperature due to winter. He said Mumbaikars should be careful and observe the appropriate Covid behavior of wearing face masks, frequently sanitizing and washing hands, and maintaining social distance.
Dr. Joshi said that the Mumbai Covid chart appears to have a “thick tail” that refuses to budge. While in global cities, the case drop from triple digits to single digits took place in two months, the “tail” in Mumbai has been constant, between 500 and 800 cases per day. “This thick tail is worrisome. Cases should have dropped to 200 a day or less now. ”
The 5% mark is the rule of thumb established by the World Health Organization for governments; 5% positivity for two weeks means the facility can be reopened.
For a city that has had a positivity rate of 20% or 30% in the initial period of the pandemic, the 5% rate is encouraging, city health officials said. In fact, the positivity rate in Mumbai peak periods (May-June and September) was so high that the overall positivity rate in the February 3-December 30 period is still high at 12.42%. Around 23 lakh of Covid-19 tests have been conducted in the city in this period.
In December, the city reached a milestone in terms of daily testing: on December 20, 22,654 tests were performed in a single day, while on December 22, 25,138 tests were performed, the highest in the city so far.
The lowest positivity rate for a single day was December 28, when 13,860 tests were performed with 537 patients who tested positive (3.8% rate).
The change in the Mumbai Covid curve was first noticed in November around Diwali. For more than a week after Diwali day on November 14, the positivity rate among daily Covid-19 tests was around 7%.
BMC Executive Health Director Dr. Mangala Gomare said: “In December, we performed the largest number of tests ever, averaging more than 16,000 tests per day.” She said BMC teams have been testing domestic and international air passengers. “We are testing in train stations and crowded places. Despite such activity, the positivity rate has been consistently low in December, ”he said.
However, Dr. Shashank Joshi, a member of the state task force on Covid-19, said there are two reasons to remain on guard. One is the appearance of the highly contagious new strain in the UK and another is the lower temperature due to winter. He said Mumbaikars should be careful and observe the appropriate Covid behavior of wearing face masks, frequently sanitizing and washing hands, and maintaining social distance.
Dr. Joshi said that the Mumbai Covid chart appears to have a “thick tail” that refuses to budge. While in global cities, the case drop from triple digits to single digits took place in two months, the “tail” in Mumbai has been constant, between 500 and 800 cases per day. “This thick tail is worrisome. Cases should have dropped to 200 a day or less now. ”
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