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As Indians await the details of a large coronavirus aid package, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced that he will boost the economy, the outbreak in the financial capital of Mumbai and in other parts of the state of Maharashtra is beginning to overwhelm the hospitals and slums, complicating any economic recovery plan.
About a third of the 71,865 confirmed virus cases in India, and almost 40 percent of its 2,415 deaths, have been reported in Maharashtra, the central coastal state that is home to Bollywood, a large agricultural industry and the largest stock market in India.
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The Sensex has sunk about 25 percent from its annual high in January.
Health experts praised the Modi government for enforcing a strict one-week shutdown that has helped the nation of 1.3 billion so far avoid the kinds of catastrophic rates of illness and death that have plagued the United States, Britain and other places.
A doctor checks the temperature of a girl in Dharavi, one of the largest slums in Asia, during the confinement in Mumbai[File:RafiqMaqbool/[File:RafiqMaqbool/[Archivo:RafiqMaqbool/[File:RafiqMaqbool/AP Photo]
‘Cost of blocking’
But as India’s blockade restrictions are eased, whether the country can get its economy back on track will largely depend on how Maharashtra recovers, experts say.
“It is a huge impact,” Gurcharan Das, former head of Procter & Gamble in India, said of the state. “I think the default position should be open, and it is only locked by exception, because eventually I’m afraid the cost of the lock will be much higher in lives than even the disease.”
India’s closure, imposed on March 25, will end at least partially on May 18. On May 4, some restrictions on manufacturing, agriculture and self-employment were lifted to ease the burden on the poor and informal sector workers who comprise the majority of India’s workforce.
Indian Railways has also partially reopened to operate special trains that transport stranded migrant workers in the confinement that have fled from major cities in India, including Mumbai, to their village homes.
At least some of the passengers carried the coronavirus with them, spikes of infection in the Bihar and Orisha states corresponding to their arrival show.
In a speech Tuesday night, Modi said the government would spend more than $ 260 billion to revive the economy. The government outlined some details of the package, including income tax cuts, liquidity injections for liquidity-strapped companies, and government-backed bank loans.
He also said he would ban foreign companies from competing in bidding on government contracts of up to $ 26 million, in a nod to the self-sufficiency and protectionist policies outlined in Modi’s speech.
Ritu Dewan, vice president of the New Delhi-based Indian Society for Labor Economics, said the government should do more to address the needs of India’s poor.
“People don’t have money, what about them? Where will they go? People need cash right now,” he said.
Health officials are fighting to contain the spread of the virus in Mumbai, one of the most densely populated cities in the world.[[[[Rajanish Kakade /AP Photo]
Signs of distress
Places like Maharashtra are showing signs of distress.
The state government has ordered all doctors in private hospitals to spend at least 15 days treating COVID-19 patients in public hospitals, where infection rates among healthcare workers are growing.
The government also released half of its inmate population amid outbreaks in prisons.
And health officials are fighting to stem the spread of the virus in Mumbai, one of the most densely populated cities in the world.
Anushaa Vijay, 31, an architect in Mumbai, said the pandemic has had a transformative effect.
“The virus bought the liveliest city I know of,” he said.
But the narrow streets of Dharavi, one of Asia’s largest slums, are still full. Prashant Pawar’s neighbor Mukund Patil, a 58-year-old pediatric diabetic food vendor, developed a mild fever earlier this month. Two days later, she tested positive for the virus. Pawar tested negative.
Pawar accompanied Patil in the ambulance to the Lokmanya Tilak Municipal General Hospital. When the doctors were able to treat him, Patil was dead.
The scenes inside the hospital left Pawar distraught.
“Its interior was full of people. Very few people wore masks,” Pawar said, adding that “sometimes I saw more than one patient resting in a single bed.”
The hospital, where many of Dharavi’s hundreds of COVID-19 patients have been treated, has been under scrutiny since a video appeared showing four bodies wrapped in black plastic along with virus patients.
A hospital staff member, Dr. Avinash Saknure, said the health facilities were “overloaded.” “We are doing our best with what we have,” he said.
