Updated: October 25, 2020 7:27:01 am
RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav with party deputy Manoj Jha and others publish the party manifesto ‘Prann Hamara’, ahead of the Bihar Assembly elections, at the party office in Patna on Saturday 24 October 2020 (PTI).
The young electorate in Bihar, a district that is being aggressively courted by all the major parties in this election, has shrunk significantly, with the largest reduction in the number of first-time voters between the ages of 18 and 19.
Electoral Commission data analyzed by The Sunday Express shows that the total under-30 electorate has decreased by 12.4%, from 2.04 crore to 1.79 crore, since the last Assembly elections. The drop is even larger in the 18-19-year-old voter category, which is less than half the 2015 count. There are 11.17 lakh first-time voters registered this time compared to 24.13 lakh in 2015.
Election officials on the ground attribute the drop to the Covid-19 outbreak and the subsequent shutdown. “Before each election, the EC launches a campaign to register new voters. Campus ambassadors are appointed to universities and colleges to encourage young people to register. This rapprochement could not happen as aggressively as it usually does due to the shutdown and could be a reason that affected young voter registration, ”said a source in the Bihar CEO’s office.
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This is a group that was born at least six years after 1990, when Mandal changed the narrative of politics and elections; he was too young when the RJD government of Lalu-Rabri was in power until 2005; and it has seen Nitish Kumar as its prime minister for most of the next decade.
Interestingly, much of the election campaign this time focuses on the youth. The RJD and LJP are courting young people by raising the issue of unemployment in the state. While RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav has promised 10 lakh of government jobs in his first act as prime minister, the LJP manifesto lists a web portal to connect job seekers and employers and a Youth Commission among its promises. The LJP has also been publicizing the fact that 30 of its 95 candidates are under the age of 40.
The BJP also pursues this vote. Jobs are the big focus of his ‘Sankalp Patra’, with four of the 11 commitments promising to generate 19 lakh of job opportunities in sectors such as healthcare, education, IT and agriculture.
The ruling JD (U), on the other hand, has focused on empowering women and enhancing the skills of young people as part of his ‘Nischay Patra 2020’.
However, Sanjay Kumar of the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) cautioned against exaggerating the influence of youth. According to him, past elections, with the exception of the Lok Sabha polls in 2014 and 2019, have shown that youth do not behave like a constituency.
“If we stick to past evidence, the youth vote has remained divided between different political parties. If a party gets 20% of the votes, it means that it has that vote even among young people. The youth have not decisively favored or gone against any political party in the last elections. If we follow that trend, then the drop in young voters will not affect the prospects of any political party in any significant way, “he told The Sunday Express.
RJD leader Manoj Jha feels that the change in the number of young voters will not negatively affect his party, although the RJD seems to be very interested in attracting this segment. “Our traction is greatest among young voters, but it is not limited to that. Our traction is in all segments. Also, caste arithmetic in Bihar is breaking down. The supposed rigidity of caste arithmetic is becoming fluid. That makes our case much stronger than ever, ”he said.
Sanjay Kumar, however, admits that there are two possible scenarios where the youth vote can be significant this time in Bihar. “There are some indications that young people may vote against the ruling NDA government because they are unhappy with Nitish Kumar for not being able to generate employment. Whether this anger or dissatisfaction will lead to a change in their voting preference is something we can only speculate at this time, ”he said.
When asked if the drop in the number of voters under 30 could end up benefiting the ruling government in that case, he said: “If their number (of young voters) has gone down, then the negative impact on JD (U) will be minor. In that case, it can make a difference. ”He also noted that if the pandemic forces older voters to stay indoors on voting day, young people could, proportionately, end up having a stronger voice in the polls. November 10 results.
Even with the decline in the total number of electorates under 30, there are about 74,000 young voters on average in each of the 243 seats in the assembly, which is several times the average margin of victory of 18,000 votes in the last elections to the Assembly.
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