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On March 22, a month ago, India observed a “Board curfew” or a voluntary closure. Two days after the country entered a national blockade to fight Covid-19, initially for a period of 21 days until April 14. That lasted for another 19 days until May 3, which in effect meant a continuous 40-day blockade for the second most populous country in the world.
The University of Oxford analyzed 73 countries around the world and ranked India’s blockade as the “strictest” according to its Restriction Index. The index was based on several factors, such as travel bans, the closure of educational institutes, emergency investment in medical care, the closure of borders, etc., and gave the Indian government a score of 100, indicating that they had taken all measures to contain the virus.
But were the measures successful?
A month has passed since the Board’s curfew. Despite some major setbacks, which included a significant increase in the number of ‘Super-Spreaders’ cases and the problem of migrant workers gathering in the streets by the thousands to return to their villages, India has done remarkably better than most other great countries in the world.
While there could be several factors responsible for this, such as the severity of the virus in India, the warmer temperature, a large percentage of our population receiving the BCG vaccine, the biggest and most shocking has been severe blockage.
Let’s see some numbers that indicate that the blockade has been successful:
1) Blocking vs. No blocking: number of cases
According to an ICMR study, in the absence of closure and containment measures, there would have been 8,20,000 cases by April 15. The projection, with containment measures but without closure, was 1.2 lakh cases. However, the actual number of cases at 9 p.m. IST on April 15 was 12,021.
2) Multiple weekly growth
Prelocking:
March 17: 137 cases
March 24 (until before closing): 519 cases
There was a 279% growth in the number of cases in the week prior to closing. The number of cases almost quadrupled in 7 days.
The weekly growth multiple (WGM) = Number of cases at the end of the week / Number of cases at the end of the previous week.
In the week prior to closing, the WGM stood at 3.79.
Post Lockdown:
March 25: 606 cases
April 1: 1966 cases
April 8: 5749 cases
April 15: 12021 cases
April 21: 20004 cases
Multiple weekly growth:
Week ending April 1: 3.24
Week ending April 8: 2.92
Week ending April 15: 2.09
Week ending April 21: 1.66
Thus, we see that the weekly growth multiple (WGM) has dropped from 3.79 in the week prior to the lock to 1.66 the week ending April 21. This week’s WGM is less than half the last week’s WGM before the crash – This is a massive drop in the growth rate of cases.
3) Duplication of cases: before and after blocking
Between March 20 and 23, cases increased from 223 to 433, that is, 1.94 times in 3 days. After two weeks of blocking (Covid-19 is believed to be contagious for 14 days), it took approximately six days for cases to double from April 8 to 14 (1.91-fold increase).
After two weeks of closure, the President of the Indian Public Health Foundation, K Srinath Reddy, stated that there is a decrease in the growth rate of infection in India and that social distancing in India has been more effective in India than in many other countries.
This doubling period has increased further to 7 days from April 14 to 21 (1.82 fold increase).
This was consistent with the findings of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
4) Average growth factor
The Covid-19 average growth factor has slowed to 1.2% since April 1. It was 2.1% in the two weeks from March 15 to March 31, a 40% decrease in the growth factor.
The percentage increase in daily cases decreased from 12% on April 20 to 9% on April 21 and to 6% on April 22.
5) recovery rate
India’s recovery rate (Total Cases Recovered / Total) rose to 19.5% on April 21. It was 7% on April 8 and 11.78% on April 14.
Nine states have a third (33%) of their affected cases recovered now. Four states have 50% or more cases recovered.
The recovery / mortality ratio in India is currently 86:14.
6) mortality rate
The death rate is the best index to measure the effectiveness of a blockade since nothing can be more devastating than the sudden loss of life.
India’s death rate has dropped from 3.4 on April 14 to 3.19 on April 22. Among the 30 countries with more than 10,000 cases, this places India at number 10. Just for perspective, India is better in this respect than Germany (3.42), Canada (4.77), USA. USA (5.53), China (5.6), Spain (10.42), France (13.16), Italy (13.4) and the United Kingdom (13.43) among some of the main powers in the world.
7) test ratios
“Test Test Test”: Although there is little doubt that the country needs to prove more, this has become almost a catchphrase hitting India by a certain section of the Western media and national intelligence.
India’s evidence / case ratio is 22.92 and is the third best in the world among all countries with more than 10,000 cases after South Korea and Russia alone.
India’s test / mortality rate is 717.24 and is the seventh best in the world among all countries with more than 10,000 cases only after Singapore, Russia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Chile.
Without blocking, the number of cases in India would have already crossed a million with a proportional increase in the number of deaths as well. The country does not have the resources to evaluate millions or the hospital and medical facilities to treat several lakh patients simultaneously, therefore a strict blockade was the only effective measure.
8) Growth rate compared to other countries
India reached its 5000th case on April 7, two weeks after the closing. From April 7 (Day 0) 14 days have passed until April 21.
We compare the growth rate of India with some of the most affected countries from its Day 0 (case 5000) to its respective Day 14.
South Korea: 8320 cases
India: 20004 cases
Iran: 20100 cases
United Kingdom: 41903 cases
Italy: 53,578 cases
Germany: 62095 cases
United States: 188,172 cases
India, comparatively better than some of the world’s leading countries, Covid-19 case growth rate.
9) A comparison with other blocking nations
16 of the 25 most affected countries in the world had been under blockade for at least 3 weeks until April 15. India’s average daily increase in cases during the blockade places it at number 7 among these 16 countries. The average daily increase in cases in India fell from 21.6% a week before closing to 15.7% three weeks after closing.
10) Playback speed: with and without lock
According to a study by the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy (CDDEP), the total peak of Covid-19 infections in India could be reduced by almost 40% with strict blocking. The reproduction rate (R), which is the number of new infections each case leads to, would be 2.66 without a block. Strict blocking like in India can reduce this to 1.5.
All of these parameters suggest that India has benefited significantly by imposing a strict blockade at an early stage long before some of the other western superpowers in the world.
You have almost certainly avoided a disaster of epic proportions!
The effect on the poor and other challenges for the economy
The biggest challenge India faces with a strict blockade is saving the livelihoods of millions of its poor and marginalized, from migrant workers to small farmers to the urban and rural poor.
A study published in mid-April suggested that while 300 people had died from Covid-19, there were 200 deaths as a result of the drastic blockade itself. While the government should have forecasted some of the human damage among the weakest sections of the country and made adequate arrangements before announcing a blockade, the scale and scale of this exercise and the extent and population of India, along with their inequalities made this a herculean task. .
Furthermore, when determining the human cost of the blockade, we must also consider the level of destruction, both in terms of the spread of the virus and subsequent deaths if such a strict blockade had not been imposed. Rocket scientists don’t need to understand that the maximum impact of such colossal damage would have been on the poor, many times more than the numbers reported today as the human cost of the blockade.
The other major challenge for India is the adverse effect of the blockade on the economy. A study carried out estimated that India could lose 13.6 million jobs and the economy could see its first contraction in 40 years as a result of the blockade.
An additional concern for India is that most of the country’s largest access points are also economic powers and large wealthy urban cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Chennai, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, to name a few, and it is little. likely to see a relaxation in closing measures even after May 3.
In the coming weeks and months, India would have to strike the right balance between an effective shutdown and keeping the country’s economic engine running, which is essentially balancing life-saving and livelihoods.
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