The monsoon retreat from far northwest India is unlikely to begin in the next two weeks, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its weekly forecast on Friday.
IMD had said on Monday that although there were indications that the monsoon would begin to withdraw from western parts of Rajasthan in the week ending September 18, the withdrawal would be extended this year as heavy rains were expected after September 17.
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In the weekly forecast released Friday, IMD scientists said the recall process was unlikely to begin as the Westerlies remain strong.
The northeast and peninsula of India are likely to see above normal rains in the next two weeks. West-central India is likely to experience above-normal rainfall between September 18 and 24.
Two low pressure areas are likely to develop in the next two weeks.
The first will take place near the north coast of Andhra Pradesh (AP) around September 13, moving along Telangana, Vidarbha and other parts of Maharashtra with heavy rains.
Another low-pressure area is likely to develop over the west-central Bay of Bengal around September 17, accompanied by another period of heavy rain.
There was a drastic reduction in rainfall until September 11. Most of the country remained dry, except for the south of the peninsula.
The dry streak over northwestern India led to high temperatures as Bikaner in western Rajasthan recorded 39.4 degrees Celsius (C) on September 9.
“We still have no sign of the monsoon retreat,” said Anand Sharma, the IMD scientist, who presented the weekly weather forecast.
“The rains will increase in mainland India over the next few days. From Kerala and Karnataka, the rains will pass to AP and then to Maharashtra. September rainfall is likely to range from normal to above normal as the four-month-long south-west monsoon prepares for a retreat. A low pressure area is likely to develop around September 13, which will bring rain and then we expect another low pressure area to develop around September 17. There will be more rain in the week ending September 24. The rains are likely to increase in the second half of September, ”said RK Jenamani, senior scientist at the National Weather Forecast Center.
In September, the monsoon rain until the 9th of the month is 29% deficient across the country.
However, rainfall was 35% higher than in mainland India during this period. In contrast, precipitation was 24%, 30%, and 54% poor in eastern and northeastern India; northwest; and over central India, respectively
Monsoon rain since June 1 has exceeded the country by 7%.
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Precipitations exceed 22%, 15% and 0% on the south of the peninsula; central; eastern and northeastern India, respectively.
But rainfall is still 11% poor in northwestern India.
Rainfall is likely to be poor until at least September 13 in most parts of the country, including northwestern and central India, before intensifying after September 17, according to the IMD’s extended range forecast.
The monsoon retreat is generally assumed to start from September 17, when rainfall begins to subside across the country, followed by a full retreat on October 15.
But this year IMD’s extended range forecast shows extensive and heavy rains along the west coast between September 11 and 24 and then until October 1 in various parts of central India.
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