The monsoon disappeared from across northern and northwestern India in September, and the heat and humidity that the region is witnessing may last the rest of the season, with experts blaming the traveling Bay of Bengal monsoon trough. heading west. rather than the usual Northwest for this.
The muggy conditions can last for the next 10 to 13 days, experts added, at least until the monsoon completely withdraws from the rainless region.
The withdrawal will ultimately result in pleasant weather, they added.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department, the rainfall deficit in the northern part of India in September is almost total, up to 99% of normal, the highest for any region in the country.
The southern states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana received up to 50% excess rainfall during the same period and the Chitradurga district in Karnataka recorded 245% excess rainfall.
In Himachal, the Kinnaur tribal district, known for its delicious royal apples harvested this month, received 88% less rainfall, the highest for any district in the state. In Uttar Pradesh, the western parts were almost dry and districts such as Bulandshahr and Mathura had a 100% rainfall deficiency.
Delhi fared slightly better than its neighboring states with a rainfall deficiency of 61%. New Delhi, the seat of the central government, saw 76% less rainfall than normal, the most for any district in the national capital. Likewise, the southern districts of Haryana, such as Gurugram and Faridabad, had about 90% less rainfall.
“Only one trough formed in the Bay of Bengal during this period and it also traveled west bringing some rain to West Bengal, Odisha and northeast India. Therefore, the north and northwest remained dry, ”said Mahesh Palawat, vice president of weather and meteorology for Skymet Weather, a private forecaster.
The north and northwest of India receive rains due to the oscillation of the feeders, obtaining their moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. With few depressions forming, the region witnessed westerly winds added to the humid conditions, said an IMD scientist, who asked not to be named as he is not authorized to speak to the media.
The warmer than usual period, with temperatures ranging from 32 degrees Celsius in the hills of Himachal and Uttarakhand to 39 degrees in Delhi, five to eight degrees above normal, showed its impact on horticultural crops.
“Due to excessive heat, the color of the apples in my orchards turned almost yellow from red. The absence of rain has caused the leaves to fall, which has turned the fruit, which looked good a month ago, to poor quality. Nobody buys a small, pale red apple, ”said Chander Mohan Justa, an orchard owner in Shimla.
Devendra Sharma, an agricultural expert, said that the lack of rainfall in the states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, food bowls, could have some impact on kharif production. “Although planting was good due to the good early monsoon rains, the dry zone in August and September has hurt farmers.”
The loss of North and Northwest India was a gain for East and South India: depressions in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal shifted westward, causing heavy rains.
The western coast, from Maharashtra to Kerala, received 90-100% excess rainfall, while most northeastern states received up to 50% more rain than normal, the IMD data showed.
A recent study from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, said that by the end of this century, southern India is likely to record the highest increase in rainfall compared to central and northern states of India. “In the worst case, rainfall could increase by 2.7 mm per day in northern India and by 18.5 mm per day in Western Ghats in southern India,” said Rajib Maity, professor of civil engineering. at IIT Kharagpur, who led the study. .
In its weekly forecast, IMD did not project significant rainfall for the remainder of the monsoon season; The monsoon is expected to withdraw from western India in the third week of September. The temperature is expected to be higher than normal in the northern and central plains of India.
The anticyclone activity, a sign of the retreat of the West India monsoon, is now visible in central Pakistan, meaning that the monsoon will start to withdraw from Rajasthan in a week, Palawat said.
Despite the decrease in rainfall in September, Mritunjay Mohapatra, IMD CEO, said on September 8 that he expected the overall monsoon in India to be 102% of normal and that the southern, central and western parts of India received substantially higher rains than normal.
“We are not expecting any improvement in rainfall deficiency in Northwest India now as we are heading towards monsoon retreat,” said DS Pai, lead scientist at IMD Pune, agreeing that the monsoon is practically over in northern India. .
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