As countries around the world grapple with the prospect of renewed closures, the Australian city of Melbourne offers a harsh lesson on the costs of controlling the coronavirus.
The city of 5 million people emerged Wednesday from one of the world’s longest and tightest closures that shuttered businesses and confined residents to their homes for more than three months.
While infections have fallen from a daily high of around 700 in early August to just two new cases on Wednesday, the economic and social impact of Melbourne’s second shutdown since the crisis began has been enormous. The Australian government estimates that 1,200 jobs have been lost on average per day across the state of Victoria, while the demand for mental health services has increased by more than 30%.
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Despite key factors working in Melbourne’s favor, including closed borders, an infection count that was small by international standards, and a state government with strong public backing, it still took twice as long as anticipated to crush the curve.
It is a bleak reality facing political leaders, particularly in Europe, who have already experienced the damage caused by full-blown blockades and are now weighing options to fight the resurgence of the pandemic.
Australia was at the forefront of nations that were early successful in controlling community transmission. Its first nationwide shutdown, which lasted from roughly March to May, reduced the number of cases to just a handful per day.
But security flaws at quarantine hotels for returning foreign travelers, miscommunication of critical information to migrant communities, and inappropriate contact tracing allowed the virus to rage again in Victoria.
On July 7, State Prime Minister Daniel Andrews announced a six-week shutdown, ordering Melbourne residents to stay home except for essential jobs and services, medical treatment, school, or one hour of exercise a day. . Less than a month later, as cases continued to rise, restrictions were extended statewide, Melbourne was put under a nightly curfew, schools were closed, and much of retail, manufacturing and hospitality was shut down. closed.
With Victoria accounting for about a quarter of the nation’s gross domestic product, the restrictions have deepened Australia’s first recession in nearly 30 years.
The shutdown has slashed A $ 100 million ($ 71 million) a day of economic activity and during August and September resulted in the loss of a daily average of 1,200 jobs statewide, said Luke Yeaman, a Treasury Department official, to a parliamentary panel this week.
Long recovery
Business leaders say it may take years for Melbourne, ranked the second most livable city in the world last year, to recover. Melbourne chef Scott Pickett warned that ongoing capacity restrictions would continue to affect restaurants and cafes and that many would withdraw once government wage subsidies end early next year.
“Some may come to Christmas, January and say they can’t do this anymore,” said Pickett, owner of the Estelle bistro. “It’s going to be a bloodbath at some point.”
“This is the beginning of a long road to recovery,” said Michael Madrusan, co-owner of Made in the Shade, which operates venues in the city, including The Everleigh cocktail bar. “We are by no means out of the woods just because we can open the doors.”
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Social costs are also increasing. The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners says that the demand for healthcare services across the country has increased 15% since the beginning of March and 31% between September and October in Victoria. Alcohol use has increased and domestic violence has skyrocketed.
“She was only allowed to go outside for an hour a day,” said Tessa Patrao, 27, who eventually returned to work as an elementary school teacher after being ordered to stay home for 112 days. The second blockade was even more difficult than the first, especially since much of the country had returned to normal, he said.
While the governments of the UK, Italy and Germany have faced protests against the second closures, the Victorians have largely complied. That’s partly due to the popularity of the state Labor government, which won the 2018 election by an overwhelming majority, and the high approval ratings of Prime Minister Andrews. The carrot and stick approach adopted by the authorities has also helped, with payments of A $ 1,500 for people who could not afford self-isolation and court fines of up to A $ 20,000 for repeated violations of isolation orders.
Circuit breakers
“Meaningful policing would have been impossible without community support,” said Terry Slevin, executive director of the Australian Public Health Association. “It is an example where a pact between a government and a community driven by expert advice has achieved a valuable public health outcome.”
According to Catherine Bennett, chair of epidemiology at Deakin University in Melbourne, it is likely too late for the UK, US and European countries to repeat Melbourne’s success in eliminating new infections. Instead, authorities would likely opt for 2-3 week circuit breaker lockouts to ease the burden on the public health system.
“A circuit breaker could help re-align it and allow it to be contained,” he said. “But unless you came very early,” it is very difficult to reduce new cases to zero.
The lockdown may have wiped out the virus for now, but it’s clear from outbreaks around the world that it may return with a vengeance if not coupled with ongoing requirements like wearing masks, social distancing, temperature checks, and strong evidence and contact. . Tracking regime. These elements of “coexistence with the virus” exist in countries such as Korea, Japan and China, which have been able to keep their cases under control.
“Australians need to have the conversation about what the new normal looks like so that we can live alongside this virus without further roadblocks,” said Jennifer Westacott, executive director of the Business Council of Australia. “If the use of face masks and hand sanitizers are the new normal now, is everyone on board? The big question is whether Australians are ready to fully adjust their lives to the Covid era. “
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