Mohammad Rizwan will continue to lead Pakistan; New Zealand will be left without Neil Wagner
Big picture
New Zealand has to be one of the toughest countries to go through in recent times. The last time a visiting team won an event in New Zealand was in March 2017. That was also the last time that New Zealand failed to win a series of events at home. Against that background, combined with the fact that they simply defeated the West Indies by one entry in successive tests, New Zealand was always the favorite against Pakistan.
The fact that Pakistan almost got a draw in the first test must have boosted their confidence. But they suffered a setback on Saturday when Babar Azam was also ruled out for the second test. Mohammad Rizwan will once again lead the team under which Pakistan showed a great fight at Mount Maunganui, but if the visitors want to draw the series, they will require their higher order to step forward.
New Zealand, on the other hand, will be looking to the future. A victory here will strengthen your chances of qualifying for the final of the World Trials Championship at Lord’s next year. More immediately, they can claim first place in the ICC Test standings if they beat Pakistan 2-0, even if that changes after the Australia-India series concludes.
What works in New Zealand’s favor is that they know the conditions of their home all too well. Against the West Indies, Tom Latham gave a masterclass in opening batting in the country, and in the last Test, his bowlers showed how to hunt like a pack and throw a side on the fifth day in New Zealand. That said, the team that makes it to the top in Christchurch will be the one that can stay the longest in the present.
Forms guide
New Zealand WWWWW (last five completed matches, most recent first)
Pakistan LDDLW
In the spotlight
Kane williamson You do your best to avoid the spotlight, but it won’t be easy to stay invisible in the middle. He is not only the lynchpin of New Zealand batting, but also the number one hitter in test cricket. Given his recent form, he has scores of 129, 21 and 251 in his last three innings, firing Williamson early will be half the battle won, no matter how hard it is said New Zealand is not dependent on one player.
After a Barnes-style career start, Mohammad abbasThe form has plummeted. In his last 12 tests, he has collected just 23 wickets with an average of 38.91 and a strike rate of 99.5. While New Zealand pitches are generally conducive to seam bowling, particularly in the early innings, Abbas pocketed just two wickets in 42 overs in the first test. If Pakistan has to level the series, Abbas will have to deliver the new ball.
Team news
New Zealand is likely to go back to a four-front attack, with Mitchell Santner as the only player. That means Matt Henry should replace Neil Wagner, who has been ruled out due to two broken fingers.
New Zealand XI (likely): 1 Tom Latham, 2 Tom Blundell, 3 Kane Williamson (captain), 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Henry Nicholls, 6 BJ Watling (week), 7 Mitchell Santner, 8 Kyle Jamieson, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Matt Henry, 11 Trent Boult
With Azam still out of shape, Pakistan can go with an XI unchanged.
Pakistan XI (probable): 1 Shan Masood, 2 Abid Ali, 3 Azhar Ali, 4 Haris Sohail, 5 Fawad Alam, 6 Mohammad Rizwan (capt & wk), 7 Faheem Ashraf, 8 Yasir Shah, 9 Mohammad Abbas, 10 Shaheen Afridi, 11 Naseem shah
Plot and conditions
Pitching in the Hagley Oval tends to help bowlers in the first few days before the moisture dries up and hitting becomes easier on the final day. The weather is expected to be windy and cloudy during the test with scattered showers forecast for the fifth day.
Statistics and trivia
- New Zealand is on its longest winning streak in test cricket. They had also recorded five consecutive victories from April 2005 to March 2006.
- New Zealand won five, lost one and drew one of the seven events it played at the Hagley Oval.
- Tim Southee has 300 windows from 76 tests; 99 of them have come in their last 20 tests with an average of 22.63 and a strike rate of 47.5.
Hemant Brar is deputy editor of ESPNcricinfo
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