Big picture
“Soccer is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and in the end, the Germans win.”
You could twist that famous Gary Lineker quote and make it about the IPL. Eight teams play 60 games of 40 overs each and, in the end, the Mumbai Indians win, unless it is an even year.
The Mumbai Indians have won every IPL that has taken place in an odd year since 2013, but have failed to reach the finals every intervening season. Until now.
It was bound to happen at some point, given the ruthless and relentless T20 machine they have become, and the 2020 IPL will conclude with the Mumbai Indians looking to win their fifth title and become the second team, after the Chennai Super Kings in 2010 and 2011 – to win consecutive titles. They have been the best team in the competition this year by just about any metric you can think of, but it’s both the charm and the flaw of a league and playoff competition that the best team won’t necessarily get their hands on the trophy.
It’s a year of bubbles, and the capitals of Delhi have floated in one that came close to bursting on a few occasions, but they have evaded the jagged outcrops and reached the final for the first time. They may have lost five of their last seven games and each of their three meetings with the Mumbai Indians, but all they need now are 40 good overs.
If you look at the two lineups at the beginning of the season, you wouldn’t have thought that one was significantly better than the other. But where most of the Mumbai Indians players have been touched by the gods of form, some of the Capitals’ key artists, who have had outstanding seasons in the not-too-distant past, have struggled, and that has caused your lineup. look unbalanced and disjointed.
Mumbai Indians have the form and a formidable amount of experience to win titles. Rohit Sharma has won five IPL titles, Kieron Pollard four, Hardik Pandya three and Jasprit Bumrah, Krunal Pandya and Suryakumar Yadav two each. But the Capitals are not short of match winners, and players like Rishabh Pant and Shreyas Iyer are still the same players they were at the start of the season, even if they haven’t always seen it. And they will know that past IPL finals have been won by players who have had indifferent seasons.
The rest of the tournament is over. Both teams start over, knowing they only need 40 good overs. And maybe one or two Super Overs.
In the news
Trent Boult only threw two overs during Qualifier 1 against the Capitals, and had to walk away with a groin strain. Boult pitched online on the eve of the final and his captain seemed hopeful about his chances of playing in the final. “Trent looks pretty good,” Rohit said. “Today he is going to have a session with all of us and we will see how it goes. He stopped quite well in the last few days, so fingers crossed, hopefully he plays.”
Past meetings
The Mumbai Indians made double over the capitals in the league phase, winning by five wickets in Abu Dhabi courtesy of Quinton de Kock and Yadav’s quick fifty in a 166 chase, and by nine full wickets in Dubai after incisive spells. de Boult with the new ball and Bumrah through the middle overs, which kept the Capitals at 110 for 9.
They became 3-0 after Qualifier 1, also in Dubai, where they racked up 200 upon dispatch, with vital contributions from de Kock, Yadav, Ishan Kishan and Hardik. The Capitals then stumbled against Boult and Bumrah once again, falling to 0 for 3 before a face-saving 65 from Marcus Stoinis reduced their margin of defeat to 57 runs.
Probably XI
Mumbai Indians: 1 Rohit Sharma (capt), 2 Quinton de Kock (week), 3 Suryakumar Yadav, 4 Ishan Kishan, 5 Hardik Pandya, 6 Kieron Pollard, 7 Krunal Pandya, 8 Nathan Coulter-Nile, 9 Rahul Chahar, 10 Trent Boult / James Pattinson, 11 Jasprit Bumrah.
Capitals of Delhi: 1 Shikhar Dhawan, 2 Marcus Stoinis, 3 Ajinkya Rahane, 4 Shreyas Iyer (capt), 5 Shimron Hetmyer, 6 Rishabh Pant (week), 7 Axar Patel, 8 Praveen Dubey / Harshal Patel, 9 Kagiso Rabada, 10 R Ashwin, 11 Anrich Nortje.
Strategy clearance
-
With Hardik not bowling this season, the Mumbai Indians’ only weak link has been the lack of a genuine sixth bowling option. This means they haven’t always been able to protect Krunal’s left arm spin from opposition left-hand hitters, and the Capitals have a plethora of those to use against Krunal and leg clamp Rahul Chahar. It is imperative that these lefties, Shikhar Dhawan, Shimron Hetmyer, Pant and Axar Patel, who could be used as pinch hitters, go strong against Krunal and Chahar and maximize their gains from their overs.
-
However, in order to do this, Capitals would need to minimize the damage they take in the power play. Boult has more power fields this season than anyone, and five of his 14 fields in that phase have come against the Capitals. Bumrah also has two power plays against the Capitals. So it might be worth it for them to hit a bit inside themselves at this stage, unless they’re chasing a big goal, of course, and fight the spinners when they get close.
-
There is a case for Mumbai Indians to pitch their spinners early, to minimize their exposure to lefties in the middle order of capitals, and also to target Stoinis, whose record of IPL versus effect (average of 26.08, rate strike 123.71) is significantly worse than his record against the beat (32.00, 147.55).
-
How the Capitals use R Ashwin could be one of the key tactical issues in the final. Ashwin has excellent IPL numbers against Sharma (79 runs of 95 balls, two layoffs), Kock (68 of 56, four layoffs) and Kishan (27 of 31, no layoffs), and while Pollard has scored 51 runs of the 34 Balls has faced since the offspinner, he has also been sent off four times. Meanwhile, the Mumbai Indians would like to have Yadav on the fold when Ashwin is around. That face to face has taken 72 of 51 balls and there have been no layoffs in eight games.
Statistics that matter
-
Mumbai is the most successful IPL franchise and the Capitals have just reached their first final, but you couldn’t say that for their head-to-head record, which was 12-12 at the start of the season. Mumbai has since walked away with three wins on the rebound.
-
One finalist has been 3-0 against the other in each of the previous three IPL seasons. The Mumbai Indians overcame their losing streak against the Rising Pune Supergiant to win the 2017 final, while the Chennai Super Kings made it 4-0 over the Sunrisers Hyderabad in 2018 and the Mumbai Indians made it 4-0 over the Super Kings last year.
-
Kagiso Rabada currently wears the purple cap with 29 windows, but Bumrah is close behind with 27.
-
If he scores 68, Dhawan will surpass KL Rahul’s 670 run count and finish the season with the Orange Cap.
-
Four Mumbai Indians hitters, Kishan (29), Hardik (25), Pollard (22) and de Kock (21), have reached at least 20 sixes in the 2020 IPL. No player from the Capitals has reached that mark, with Stoinis (15) his most frequent boundary clarifier.)
-
Stoinis has scored 352 runs and taken 12 wickets this season. He is one of 12 all-rounders to complete a double 350-10 in an IPL season. Hardik and Andre Russell did it last year, and Sunil Narine in 2018.
.
