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| Mumbai |
Updated: May 21, 2020 7:12:36 am
View APMC vegetable market after it was opened for trade in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic in Navi Mumbai (Express photo by Narendra Vaskar)
Maharashtra, the state worst hit by Covid-19, which represents around a third of all cases in India, and two out of every five deaths. Mumbai, in turn, accounts for three of every five cases in Maharashtra, and also three out of every five deaths.
In the midst of these high numbers, the epidemiologists also aimed at encouraging recent trends. While the number of cases is increasing, the rate of growth has slowed. The mortality rate among those infected has been decreasing. And the rate of recovery has also encouraged the experts.
Trends
As of 5:30 pm Wednesday, Maharashtra has had 37,136 cases with 1,325 deathsoutside of India 1,06,750 cases and 3,303 deaths. Mumbai has had 22,746 cases and 800 deaths.
Until the first week of May, Mumbai was burning about 500 new cases each day. The last week this rose to a little less than 1,000 per day. Now, this is more than 1,200 new cases each day. On Tuesday alone, 1,411 fresh Covid-19 cases were registered.
For the state and the city, the case and death counts in April were 30 to 50 times the corresponding account in the month of March. The rates of growth between the months of April and the first 20 days of May, however, have been well behind the rates of growth between the months of March and April. For example, Mumbai monthly the number of dead increased 40-fold from 7 in March, 283 in April, and from April to 1.8 times in the first 20 days of May (see table). Mumbai monthly new cases, which grew 45-fold from March to April, have increased by a factor of 2.2 until now. While the May accounts are only 20 days, this is still a great difference in the rates of monthly growth of the account.
The takeaway
Take the doubling of the rate, or the time it takes for cases to double. “In the early cases doubled in three days, and then decreased to six-seven days, and now, Maharashtra has been doubling the rate of 11.9. This means that the transmission of the virus is slowing down. Mumbai has shown similar trends,” said Dr Pradeep Awate, an epidemiologist. On Wednesday, Mumbai doubling of the rate was at 13 years old, better than it has been in recent days.
The death rate, or deaths as a percentage of the infected pool, has consistently reduced in Maharashtra and Mumbai. Mumbai, the mortality rate had risen to over 7% in April. Following steps to the ramp of intensive care and oxygen support, with emphasis on the immediate, symptomatic treatment, the mortality rate has decreased continuously and is currently 3.5%.
Tuesday, 9,639 patients had been recovered in Maharashtra (25%), including 6,116 in Mumbai (26.8%). Tuesday recorded the highest number of recoveries, in 1,202 across Maharashtra.
Read| 194 deaths in a day, infections surge to a new high, but still duplication in 12 days, the government says
The concerns
Still, the big numbers are the thing that is difficult of treatment facilities around the world. Mumbai is the addition of 1,200-1,400 new cases each day. If we take only the Tuesday example, for a bed that was vacant (due to death or recovery), two new patients were waiting to take.
Read| the Nature of the crisis: Why Mumbai is running out of beds of a critical Covid patients
Health officials are worried about how the monsoon will affect the present of the circulation. “Cases of the flu, bringing the monsoon, to have affection for the lungs. Coronavirus also has an affinity to attack the lungs. We do not know how these viruses behave together,” said the epidemiologist Awate. The other viruses he was referring to are those that cause dengue, malaria and leptospirosis.
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