A health worker takes a sample from a migrant worker who returned to Delhi. (Reuters / file)
The most positive thing for Delhi is that it has been able to contain the number of deaths from Covid-19. The average number of daily deaths from Covid-19 has dropped 6 times from 70 in the week ending June 22 to 12 on August 16.
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Delhi recorded 2,024 Covid-19 cases on August 30 and, for the first time in 51 days (since July 10), the national capital saw its daily count cross 2,000. There has been an upward trend in the number of cases in Delhi for the past four weeks.
From an average of 3,333 daily cases for the week ending June 28, the number dropped to 2,338 on July 5. The downward trend continued through the week ending August 2, as there has been an increase in cases again. The growth has been more severe in the last week.
Delhi has recorded more than 1,000 daily cases every day for the past 14 days (since August 18). The 6 days from August 25 to 30 have seen a new peak with a daily count of more than 1,500 cases. What will concern the authorities is the fact that, along with the increase in cases, there has been a corresponding increase in the Positivity Rate.
Increased positivity rate in August
One of the main reasons for the sharp decline in cases in Delhi in July was increased testing. However, there was a drop in the number of tests from the week ending August 9 (18,344 average daily tests) to the following week ending August 16 (15,719 average daily tests).
The drop in test numbers along with more relaxations and openness of the economy, the violation of social distancing norms, complacency in wearing masks in public places, and the return of the migrant workforce meant that the rate of Case growth was higher than the testing rate on August 9.
As a result, the Weekly Positivity Rate, which had fallen drastically from 10.97% on July 6 to 6.05% on August 2, rose again from the second week of August. It has risen sharply from 6.04% on August 9 to 8.64% on August 30.
The daily positivity rate touched almost 10% on August 30. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Delhi government has decided to increase its tests again and double the daily tests from 20,000 to 40,000.
The Delhi cloning number or R-value for Covid-19, another parameter to measure the spread of the infection, rose to 1.09 on Aug. 19 after staying below 1 for more than a month.
The R-value is defined as the number of people to whom an infected person will transmit the virus, on average. An R value of less than 1 indicates that the spread of the infection is under control.
The percentage of empty beds in hospitals had risen significantly from 46.71% on June 10 to 81.08% on July 29, suggesting that the number of critically and seriously affected patients had been drastically reduced.
However, there has been an increase in occupancy over the past few weeks with the vacancy percentage dropping to 76.97% on August 10 and dropping further to 73.02% on August 27.
The death rate remains low
The most positive thing for Delhi is that it has been able to contain the number of deaths from Covid-19. The average number of daily deaths from Covid-19 has dropped 6 times from 70 in the week ending June 22 to August 12, 16.
Although the daily average has risen marginally to 15 during the week ending August 23 and August 18 on August 30, the overall death rate has fallen from 3.72% on June 20 to 2.55% on August 30th.
Furthermore, Delhi’s overall recovery rate of 89.1% remains the highest in the country.
In addition to increasing testing, the Delhi government has taken several other steps to curb the spread of the infection. This includes the deployment of additional teams in all districts to ensure safety guidelines and protocols are followed and the imposition of fines for violations.
But with more relaxations, including the opening of the Metro from September 7, the next few weeks will be crucial for Delhi in its fight against the pandemic.
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