Unlike Donald Trump, whom Chinese officials had little knowledge of before taking office, Joe Biden is well known in Beijing. But that story is unlikely to quickly mend a relationship between global powers that has fundamentally changed in the past four years.
A supporter of commitment to Beijing since the 1970s, Biden held extensive meetings with Xi Jinping when they both served as vice president in 2011. However, his stance toward the world’s second-largest economy hardened over the past decade: in the campaign He criticized Beijing for his actions in Hong Kong, calling his policies towards Muslim minorities in the western Xinjiang region “inconceivable” and calling the Chinese president a “bully.”
Biden’s transformation in China reflected a broader shift in Washington, where a bipartisan consensus began to view Beijing as a threat to the US-led world order when Trump imposed punitive tariffs on Chinese goods and took action against companies from Huawei. Technologies Co. to Bytedance Ltd., the creator of TikTok. In office, Biden will likely continue Trump’s rejection of Chinese assertiveness as he works more closely with US allies to control Beijing, spreading increasingly intense strategic competition.
“The new administration will have to protect its flank from accusations of being soft on Beijing,” said James Green, who served as a US diplomat in Asia during the Obama and Trump administrations. “A return to US-China relations in the mid-2010s is not on the cards.”
American public opinion on China has soured after years of criticism over the country’s business practices, human rights policy, and the Covid-19 pandemic, which originated in the city of Wuhan. That will be difficult to reverse, especially as the United States struggles to handle a third wave of the outbreak after 230,000 Americans have already died from the virus.
Allies Prepare for U.S. U-Turn As Biden Shifts Priorities
Biden’s biggest change from Trump will likely be his focus on allies. While Trump has targeted traditional American partners such as Japan, South Korea and Europe for taking advantage of defense commitments and cheating on trade, Biden has vowed to work closely with them to force Chinese cooperation on priorities ranging from the commercial ties with Hong Kong up to 5G technology. .
Whether that approach is effective or not, a return to the politics of alliances is likely to frustrate Beijing.
“Biden may try to improve relations with the allies and unite to try to suppress China,” said He Weiwen, a former official with the Chinese consulates in San Francisco and New York. “Right now, America’s relations with Europe are deteriorating, making it difficult to unite allies to suppress China. If Biden improves relations with European allies, this will be detrimental to China. “
Trump’s scorecard in China has many defeats and a big change
China’s official reaction to Biden’s election victory has so far been silent, with no public congratulations from Xi. Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the state-run Global Times, said on Twitter that the Chinese government “needs to contact Biden’s team to explore the possibility of getting rid of the extreme turmoil in the China-US relationship.”
China is preparing for the worst whatever happens. Xi has repeatedly called on China to strive for “self-sufficiency” in key economic sectors, and Communist Party officials stressed last week that the country needed to build its own core technology rather than seek to buy it elsewhere. Central to that effort is the ability to produce its own chips, the building blocks of innovations, from artificial intelligence to 5G networks to autonomous vehicles.
Xi also recently used the 70th anniversary of China’s entry into the Korean War to suggest that his country is not intimidated by American military might, a message that comes as Beijing escalates threats against Taiwan. The war “shatters the legend that the US Army is not defeated,” Xi said in a speech last month in the Great Hall of the People that was attended by party dignitaries, military officials and veterans.
Government advisers in Beijing say they hope the Biden administration will continue to pressure China on human rights in places like Hong Kong and Xinjiang, while continuing to sell more weapons to Taiwan.
Not many details
“Biden’s stance on Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and the South China Sea is likely to be consistent with Trump’s,” said Shi Yinhong, director of the Center for American Studies at Renmin University of China and advisor to the Chinese government. .
An early test of how Biden may treat Hong Kong differently could come soon, as the Trump administration faces a mid-December deadline to name the banks that have transacted with Chinese and Hong Kong officials who were singled out. for undermining the autonomy of the territory. Sanctions against major Chinese lenders could increase tensions and affect the global financial system.
In the election campaign, Biden did not offer many details about what Trump-era policies he would change. He has not vowed to scrap the “phase one” trade deal Trump struck with China in January or to withdraw the tariffs he imposed. It has also said little about whether it would allow Huawei to buy back cutting edge chips or allow TikTok to access US user data, let alone adopt the Trump administration’s “Clean Net” program to convince allies to quit. to communications networks involving Chinese computer companies.
Here’s what Biden had to say about America’s top trouble spots with China
Tony Blinken, a senior adviser to Biden considered a potential secretary of state, said in September that a President Biden would use tariffs when necessary and seek commitments from China on subsidies and cyber-theft, areas that were left out of Trump’s deal after the two parts repeatedly. failed to reach an agreement.
When it comes to Chinese technology, Biden has voiced similar concerns about national security as Trump did, making it likely that his administration will continue efforts to curb access to US intellectual property and data for certain technology companies. Chinese.
Still, trade policy under Biden would be “less chaotic and predictable,” said Wendy Cutler, a former senior business official in the Obama administration who is now vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute. “Most importantly, a Biden administration will seek to generate collective responses with other countries toward China, rather than unilateral actions that have largely failed to date.”
There is also likely to be continuity when it comes to America’s military priorities. As vice president of Barack Obama, Biden was a promoter of America’s “turn” from the Middle East to Asia. It will likely keep that focus on what is now called the “Indo-Pacific” region, a term used to indicate India’s importance to the US and Asian strategy, including efforts to push Beijing back into the China Sea. Southern.
“It captures the strategic importance of maritime space now and in the future,” said Amy Searight, former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for South and Southeast Asia.
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