Analysts say the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh may trigger a violent response in Iraq.
Erbil, Kurdish region of northern Iraq – The assassination of senior Iranian nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh near Tehran on Friday has triggered a family tremor in the region.
No one has claimed responsibility for the attack. But from Beirut to Baghdad, Iran and its proxies have pointed the finger at Israel and the United States, prompting some regional observers to foresee another escalation of violence in Iraq.
In a statement, the spokesman for the Secretary General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, urged “moderation and the need to avoid any action that could lead to an escalation of tensions in the region.”
But Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei called for the killers to be brought to justice, and some Iraqis have gripped a sense of unrest.
The assassination of one of Iran’s most important figures is reminiscent of the assassination of senior Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in January.
Soleimani’s assassination by a US airstrike paved the way for a spike in violence between US troops and Iranian-backed armed groups such as Kataib Hezbollah.
The group issued a statement after Fakhrizadeh’s assassination calling for revenge against the criminal record of the “Zionist-American-Saudi axis.” The cost of their crimes must be high. “
International Crisis Group Iraq senior analyst Lahib Higel told Al Jazeera: “We may see retaliation in Iraq from groups linked to Iran.”
However, he said this month’s US presidential election, in which incumbent Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden, has complicated the situation.
“On the one hand, Iran and its affiliates in Iraq want to remain hidden until [President] The Trump team leaves office in January, but on the other hand it is unlikely that the Iranians will not respond before then, “he said.
He said that an Iranian response in Iraq would likely “take similar forms to what we have seen previously, rocket attacks on the green zone or the Ain al-Asad air base, targeting logistics convoys.”
“But there are other theaters in the region where this could also happen.”
Henry Rome, a senior analyst at geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group, said Iran will likely be restrained in its initial response to Fakhrizadeh’s assassination.
“While Iranian officials debate the wisdom of immediate diplomacy with the incoming Biden administration, there is likely little interest in taking action that blocks this path, such as an attack on US forces or personnel,” it said in a statement. issued by Eurasia Group.
But an initial moderate response by Iran does not rule out eventual further retaliation.
“They may be planning something that is slow,” Michael Stephens, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told Al Jazeera.
But even if they do, “it’s very difficult to do that outside of what they’ve already been doing,” Stephens said, referring to rocket attacks by armed groups on US targets.
Tamer Badawi, a Middle East Program associate at the European University Institute, told Al Jazeera that any Iran-linked response in Iraq could be constrained by the October agreement by Iranian-backed armed groups to temporarily halt attacks on US facilities. . on the condition that US troops withdraw from Iraq.
“It is a challenge for Iran in Iraq to retaliate with a very clear message, while at the same time maintaining a fragile truce declared by the paramilitaries in October not to attack the US embassy and troops,” he said.
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