We probably wouldn’t be discussing this if the Rajasthan Royals hadn’t pulled off a heist against Kings XI Punjab in Sharjah. But why did KL Rahul, who is fully equipped to go ballistic like the other hitters in the game, choose to play inside himself and simply deliver the punch to Mayank Agarwal? Surely Kings XI could have done with the extra runs they could have put on the board if their captain had scored at the pace that he is capable of.
In a game in which the other batters hit nearly 200, Rahul hit 69 of 54 balls with a strike rate of 127.77. ESPNcricinfo’s Smart Stats gave Rahul a negative impact on the value of his tickets. It wasn’t that he was rusty after a long break the way other Indian hitters have been in the league thus far. After all, in Kings XI’s previous match in Dubai, a field larger than Sharjah, he had put the players to the sword with an undefeated 132 from 69 balls.
Steven Smith played a similar role in the Royals’ first game of the season in Sharjah, against the Chennai Super Kings, playing second fiddle to a prowling Sanju Samson. Smith proved with a 50 of 27 balls against Kings XI that he can score quickly if he wants to. So why did the two batsmen, who are capable of scoring at the frenetic pace that T20 cricket demands of them, play the swing rotation game?
One possible reason could be that they are programmed to think in terms of associations, which are highly valued in longer formats. Coaches and experts, who have played much of their cricket in the longer formats, perhaps share this philosophy as well. Team think-tanks may worry that a wicket will cause a collapse or that new batters will take too long to settle, even on flat surfaces.
Also, teams hitting first may start their innings with the goal of scoring a score that is pair for the pitch and prevailing conditions. Hitters who are otherwise capable of hitting sixes could settle for striking out their teammates, the association designated hitters, as long as the team is on track to achieve that even score. Large partnerships in which one hitter goes hard while the other spins well are supposed to be good for the team’s cause in all conditions.
The numbers suggest that the teams are happy that the associations are following that pattern. Data from 94 IPL associations where both hitters have contributed at least 50 runs to the stand suggest that it is rare for both hitters to play to their hitting potential. Only three times in such associations have both hitters scored at a hitting rate of more than 200. Both hitters have hit more than 150 in only 36 (38.2%) of the 94 bleachers, and as many as 58 (62%) of the bleachers had at least one batter hitting less than 150.
The bat-first numbers are more significant here, as the score rates in chases are dictated by the objectives. Of the 58 associations in which both hitters have contributed more than 50 while hitting first, 33 have come with at least one of the hitters hitting less than 150. Nineteen of these 33 associations have had losses.
The numbers are most revealing since the 2015 IPL season, a time of higher overall scoring rates, with only four of the 14 such associations earning victories. In contrast, nine of the 13 associations in which both batters exceeded 150 have won. These numbers show that associations in which a batter scores slowly leave teams vulnerable to not racking up a large enough total by hitting first.
The IPL data suggests that when a hitter hits well, it is not in the team’s interest for his partner to play below his potential for the sake of building a partnership. Teams are better off with cameos from the other hitters. Since 2018, the average score rate for associations in which both hitters contribute 50 runs or more is 9.9 runs per over. In associations where the fastest partner scores 50 or more and the slowest partner less than 30, the score rate is (11.2). This is probably because, as we saw earlier, bigger stands tend to hurt the scoring rate. The compensation is obviously the land lost in the process.
So teams that can afford to lose some wickets, like the ones Kings XI might have in their game against the Royals, should have hitters of Rahul’s caliber who play to their full potential rather than rotate the strike. In conditions like Sharjah’s, teams hitting first should perhaps worry less about building partnerships and more about scoring as quickly as possible.
The landscape of T20 hitting is changing rapidly. Good chasing teams now have the confidence to chase goals, no matter how big. The IPL data indicates that a higher percentage of the century positions in the early innings (even without the condition that both hitters contribute at least 50) have losses than before. Since the 2018 season, 12 of the twentieth-century stands that arrived while hitting first have made losses. This means that 60% of these associations have contributed to the defeat. In the first four years of the IPL, only eight of the 33 first century bat tiers had suffered losses. That is a 47% swing. It is clear then that teams should not seek to create partnerships just for the sake of doing so.
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