India has purchased 500 million doses of the Oxford University-AstraZeneca vaccine candidate
New Delhi:
India is the largest buyer of COVID-19 vaccines in the world with 1.6 billion doses, according to a global analysis, a number that some scientists say could cover 800 million people, or 60 percent of its population, and it will be enough. to develop “group immunity”.
India has purchased 500 million doses of the candidate vaccine from the University of Oxford-AstraZeneca, 1 billion from the American company Novavax and 100 million doses of the candidate Sputnik V from Russia’s Gamaleya Research Institute, according to the Center for Innovation in Global Health from Duke University in the United States.
The ‘Speedometer Launch and Scale’ analysis, which is updated every two weeks, shows that India has confirmed 1.6 billion doses of three vaccines as of November 30, while the US and the EU have bought doses of six candidates .
According to the analysis, India is the main buyer of the COVID-19 vaccine, followed by the European Union, which has confirmed 1.58 billion doses, and the United States, the most affected country so far, which has managed to buy just over a thousand million doses.
As countries develop strategies to secure more vaccines to protect their populations against the new coronavirus infection, Duke University has released a new global assessment of COVID-19 vaccine purchase agreements, even before there are candidates. in the market.
“Countries with manufacturing capacity, such as India and Brazil, have managed to negotiate large market commitments with leading vaccine candidates as part of the manufacturing agreements,” the Duke researchers noted in their analysis.
“The data is based on what is in the public domain and after speaking with government officials, especially in India,” explained virologist Shahid Jameel.
In November, Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said that it was estimated that between 400 and 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines would be available to 250 to 300 million (25 crore to 30 crore) of people in India to July-August 2021.
Mr. Jameel told PTI that all the vaccines “pre-booked” by India are manufactured by Indian companies – Oxford-AstraZeneca and Novavax by Serum Institute of India (SII) in Pune and Sputnik V by Dr. Reddy’s laboratory in Hyderabad.
India’s national vaccine candidate by Bharat Biotech also entered Phase 3 clinical trials this week.
“Bharat Biotech and Zydus-Cadila would also add around 400 million doses a year. In summary, the figures seem reasonable for 2021 and 2022,” said Jameel, director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University.
“We can expect the first 250 million to be vaccinated in 2021, the rest in the following years. The problem will not be the vaccine doses, but the ability to administer them,” he explained.
He noted that 1.6 billion doses would cover 800 million people or 60% of India’s population. This, the virologist said, should be enough to develop herd immunity, a form of indirect protection against infectious diseases that occurs when a sufficient percentage of the population has become immune to infection.
The first 500 million doses, said the virologist, are likely to reach 250 million people in the group that includes front-line workers, health, sanitation, emergency services and security services.
This group also includes the elderly over 65 years of age and patients with comorbidities.
Immunologist Satyajit Rath said there is currently no particularly reliable estimate of the percentage of community coverage that needs to be vaccinated to reach the point of “herd immunity.” The reliability of the models used for these estimates is far from clear, he emphasized.
“Since all the vaccine candidates being discussed as being bought have two dose vaccine regimens, the current number for India would vaccinate Rs 80 million (800 million) people at best. This, of course, it doesn’t take into account the logistical losses, which can be substantial, “Mr Rath, from the National Institute of Immunology (NII) in New Delhi, told PTI.
“Furthermore, this seems to imply that COVID-19 vaccination is a one-time exercise. But it is unclear how long the protection mediated by the vaccine will last, and therefore it is unclear when and how repeat vaccination will be necessary. will be delivered, “he added.
Noting some uncertainties about COVID dose purchases, Mr. Rath said he is “curious” about the “confirmed” purchase from India.
“Have they been paid or at least committed to a certain price, are these acquisitions through the COVAX program or independent of it, and above all, of course, what is the agreed delivery schedule in this acquisition, etc.?”
Mr. Rath also noted that it is difficult to predict how many will be immunized and when.
“The next set of uncertainties I have is whether there are credible and well-crafted plans in India to match these delivery schedules with onward transportation, actual uptake and vaccination, plans for multi-stage transportation, warehousing in cold at various points, the provision of injection accessories …, the necessary registration and, above all, the personnel trained to administer the injections. “
In his opinion, it is likely that a certain sector of health workers will be immunized in the coming months, as well as a certain proportion of “first aid” people with high occupational risk of infection. “Beyond that, we are just whistling in the wind at this stage,” he said.
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