“I would be very concerned about what we will see in India,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the School of Public Health at Brown University and a leading expert on infectious diseases.
The festivals draw tens and thousands of people, huddled shoulder to shoulder in temples, business districts and family gatherings, raising concerns among health experts warning of a whole new cascade of infections, more testing, and depleting the battered health system Indian healthcare. .
Festival season is traditionally accompanied by unmatched fanfare and extravagance, with socializing being the hallmark of the celebration. But this year’s festivities have started on a pale note.
Until now, the colorful and elaborate rituals for Durga Puja and Dussehra have been reduced. The celebrations, devoid of all the great things, have fallen silent. Towering religious sculpture displays are rare, and in many places prayers have gone virtual, with organizers live streaming sessions for devotees.
In many states, police barricades have been erected around places of worship that are often full of people to avoid large gatherings.
But this could change.
About a billion Indians will soon celebrate Diwali, the Hindu festival of light and the largest in the country. Socializing is a key part of the most anticipated event of the year, with shopping malls and markets packed with shoppers. It also traditionally brings a massive increase in consumer spending across India.
Although the government hopes the festival will help resurrect the ailing economy, it is also concerned that people will pack their bags, forgoing social distancing and masks.
Such concerns prompted Prime Minister Narendra Modi to address the nation in a televised speech earlier this week, warning people of “any laxity” during the holiday season that “could affect India’s healthcare system.”
India ranks second after the United States with the largest coronavirus outbreak. Last month, the country reached a peak of nearly 100,000 cases in a single day, but since then daily infections have dropped by about half and deaths by about a third.
Some experts say the decline in cases suggests the virus may have finally reached a plateau, but others question the testing methods. India’s testing rate has remained constant but relies heavily on antigen testing, which is faster but less accurate than traditional RT-PCR testing.
Although the reasons behind the decline are not entirely clear, India continues to record more than 50,000 cases a day, making any further increase even more significant.
These fears stem largely from India’s early success story, until it wasn’t.
In June, the southern coastal state of Kerala was applauded for flattening the curve, generating worldwide recognition, including from the United Nations. But in a surprising reversal, it now ranks as the second worst state for active coronavirus cases in the country.
Health Minister Harsh Vardhan blamed “gross negligence” during the 10-day celebrations of the Onam festival in late August for the rise of the virus in Kerala. Since then, the infections reported there have increased fivefold, far exceeding the national trend.
Kerala’s history has alarmed health experts who fear similar problems in the lead up to Diwali that could reverse the gains.
“If we don’t avoid socializing during the upcoming festival season, I’m afraid we’ll go back to where we started,” said Dr. T. Jacob John, a retired virologist. “We have a significant risk ahead.”
For the many faithful, the reduced celebrations do not bring home the joy of the festival and the need to get out is only growing.
Sumita Chaterjee’s family has avoided outdoor gatherings for months after the 64-year-old New Delhi resident and her granddaughter survived the virus in late June.
But now the family plans to waive the restriction and participate in a ritual in which the idol of the goddess Durga will dive into a community pool on Sunday. The entire neighborhood is expected to participate in the ritual.
“This is a matter of faith,” Chaterjee said. “I know there are risks, but we cannot make the gods angry.”
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