The government will release gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the first quarter of the current financial year on Monday, which experts have said could be worse since the release of quarterly data in 1996.
India’s economy is expected to contract mainly because the April-June 2020 quarter saw more of the 68-day nationwide lockdown restrictions, which were enforced by the government as of March 25 to contain the spread. of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) outbreak. according to experts.
Here’s what the experts say about the GDP data:
* According to Economy Watch, the monthly report published by consultancy EY India, GDP growth in the first quarter (Q1) is also likely to be the worst among the four quarters of fiscal year 21.
* This implies that the economy may perform better in the three successive quarters of the current fiscal year.
* Ecowrap, a research report released by the State Bank of India (SBI) on August 17, estimates that the decline in GDP for the first quarter of fiscal year 21 will be around -16.5%, albeit with relevant caveats in the current uncertain scenario due to the pandemic.
* Economists in a Reuters poll predicted that gross domestic product in the world’s fifth-largest economy will contract by 18.3% in the June quarter, compared with growth of 3.1% in the previous quarter, worst performance in at least eight years.
* The same economists forecast a contraction of 8.1% and 1.0% in the September and December quarters respectively, the agency said.
* Reuters also reported that Shilan Shah, India economist at Capital Economics Singapore, said that the economic damage caused by lockdowns related to the coronavirus pandemic was far worse in India than in any other country in Asia.
* “Timely indicators show that the post-closing recovery is now stalling, underscoring the long and difficult road ahead for the Indian economy,” said Shah, who is forecasting a 15% contraction in the June quarter. , in a note on Friday.
* Reuters also reported that some private economists said the fiscal year that began in April could see a contraction of nearly 10%, the worst performance since Independence.
* According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, data to be released later on Monday will likely show GDP declining 18% in the quarter to June from a year earlier.
* Rahul Bajoria, chief economist for India at Barclays Plc, based in Mumbai, estimates a 25.5% contraction of GDP in the last quarter given the “unprecedented blow to the economy” of the closing.
* “With nationwide lockdown measures extended throughout April and May, and most states extending their own partial restrictions throughout June, the rural economy, government spending, and commodities will likely be the only sectors mitigating part of the reduction”. Bajoria said, according to Bloomberg.
* “The statistics office could announce a GDP contraction of 17.5% year-on-year, which could later be changed to a contraction of 25% when the informal sector survey is available,” Pranjul Bhandari, chief economist for India at HSBC Holdings Plc in Mumbai, he was quoted by Bloomberg.
(With contributions from the agency)
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