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So far this week, the number of cases has increased by 16 percent (between Monday morning and Thursday morning). This is a slower rate of increase compared to the previous three days, when confirmed cases increased by 19 percent.
After declining last month, India’s coronavirus trajectory has improved this month, with new infections increasing faster than several Asian peers and deaths increasing faster than in most other severely affected countries.
India’s case count has roughly doubled in the past eleven days. This is a much slower rate compared to early April, when cases doubled every four days. Deaths have also seen a slower increase compared to the trend in early April, but have picked up the pace in recent weeks. The death toll in India for covid-19 as of Thursday morning was 2,549, roughly double what it was eleven days ago.
At the compound daily growth rate in this eleven-day period, the number of cases could increase to 100,000 by next Tuesday, two days after the current phase of closure ends. The continued increase in cases poses a serious challenge to India’s medical capacity and overburdened health system.
At 19,400, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases, according to the health ministry update this morning. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.
Next on the list is Tamil Nadu with 6,987 active cases, followed by Gujarat, with 5,139 patients still on treatment. Delhi is fourth on the list with 5,034 active cases and Madhya Pradesh with 1,937. The top five states together account for 78 percent of active cases nationwide, and the top ten states account for 93 percent of all cases.
Nationwide, the active case count was 49,219 as of Thursday morning. The numbers have not yet peaked and the statewide distribution could change in the coming days as testing increases in all states.
In the past seven days, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and West Bengal have seen the highest peak in cases among the top ten states with the majority of cases. These three states represent 79 percent of all new active cases in this period. During the same period, deaths have increased the most in Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Maharashtra. These three states account for 51 percent of all covid-related deaths in the past seven days. Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh are the only two states in the top ten where the active case count has decreased in this period. Active cases have increased much more slowly in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh compared to the previous weeks.
Among the top ten states with the most active cases, case fatality rates are highest in West Bengal (9%), Gujarat (6.1%) and Madhya Pradesh (5.6%). India’s case fatality rate continues to hover around 3.2%. Among all states, case fatality rates are lowest in Odisha (0.6%), Kerala (0.7%), and Tamil Nadu (0.7%).
In the past two days, the districts of Mumbai, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Thane and Pune have seen the largest increase in nationally confirmed cases. These five districts account for 56 percent of new cases during this period, according to data collected by howindialives.com the night before. Other districts that have seen a sharp increase in the past two days are Indore, Kolkata, and Aurangabad.
So far, 551 districts have confirmed cases in the country. Mumbai (15,699 cases) has reported the highest number of cases nationwide among all districts, followed by Ahmedabad (6,645) in Gujarat. Chennai (5,268) in Tamil Nadu, Pune (3,301) in Maharashtra, and Thane (3,065) in Maharashtra are the other main districts. These top five districts now account for 49 percent of confirmed cases in the country.
Indore (2,107) in Madhya Pradesh, Jaipur (1,328) in Rajasthan, Kolkata (1,153) in West Bengal, Surat (967) in Gujarat and Jodhpur (944) in Rajasthan are the other top ten districts on the list of ten best districts. The top ten districts account for 58 percent of all confirmed cases nationwide. District data for Delhi are not available and therefore do not form part of this list.
Most of India’s hot spots so far have been wealthy urban districts, with wealthier states more affected than the rest.
Meanwhile, the global coronavirus case count has crossed 4.3 million even as some severely affected countries begin to relax blocking measures after more than a month.
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