New Delhi’s record of daily cases of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) became the highest ever recorded by any country on Friday, meaning the outbreak in the country is currently worse than at the peak in the United States (USA), the worst affected nation in the world.
On average, 69,558 new cases were reported in India every day for the past week, putting it above the seven-day peak of daily cases recorded in the U.S. When the number reached 69,330 in the week that ended on July 25. The US trajectory was the worst in the world in the eight months since the coronavirus disease appeared in December 2019.
On Friday, India reported 76,139 new cases of Covid-19, bringing the total number of cases in the country to 3,458,186. To be sure, the United States has more than six million confirmed infections, more than 1.8 times those of India, which is unlikely to overtake the United States anytime soon.
Brazil, which is the country with the second highest number of total cases, has about 350,000 more cases than India. The South American nation, however, has been adding around 30,000 fewer cases than India every day recently, so the latter has been closing the gap quickly.
New cases in India have increased at an alarming rate and have shown no signs of abating. India’s doubling rate, the rate at which total cases in the country would double, was 32 days on Friday compared to 96 days in the United States and 68 in Brazil. For doubling rates, a higher number means an increase at an alarming rate and they have shown no signs of abating. India’s doubling rate, the rate at which total cases in the country would double, was 32 days on Friday compared to 96 days in the United States and 68 in Brazil. For duplication rates, a higher number means that cases are growing at a slower (therefore better) rate. In fact, India has the worst doubling rate among the 10 worst affected nations in the world.
However, with a total of 62,703 deaths as of Friday, India’s fatality rate (CFR), the proportion of deaths among confirmed cases, is 1.8%, which is not only much better than the world average of 3.4. %, but also better than the United States (3.1%) and Brazil (3.2%).
ABRUPT vs CONSTANT TRAJECTORIES
The United States became the worst affected nation in the world thanks to two separate and massive spikes of cases. The first peak, which was milder, peaked in early April and was centered in the northeast of the country, with states like New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania reporting elevated cases.
Towards the end of June, a second peak began with new epicenters like California, Texas and Florida, leading to new cases to record levels again. In this phase, the US set the world record for the highest cases in a single day on July 24 when it reported 78,586 infections. The country’s seven-day average peaked a day later, on July 25. Since then, this wave of infections has also subsided, with the country currently reporting around 42,000 new cases per day.
In Brazil, the trajectory has been the most erratic of these three. It has seen smaller waves of infections that have been reduced three times: mid-June, mid-July, and mid-August. However, cases appear to have stalled in the past two weeks, averaging around 37,000 new cases each day, against more than 46,000 in the last week of July.
Unlike the other two nations where the new trend lines of cases are uneven, the burden of cases in India has grown gradually and has not had any abrupt peaks. But this is not necessarily good news because it also means that the trajectory in India has never stalled. With nearly every state (except Delhi) reporting record cases in recent weeks, this trajectory has yet to show signs of slowing down.
To be sure, the three countries are quite similar demographically, which may explain the extended trajectory of the pandemic. The United States is the third largest country in the world by geographic area, Brazil fifth and India seventh. As infection decreases in one part of the country, it increases in another. In terms of population, India is the second most populous country in the world, the United States the third and Brazil the sixth. Unsurprisingly, per capita infection and death figures are low in all three countries compared to the smaller and less populated nations.
.
