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Edited by Explained Desk | New Delhi |
Updated: May 26, 2020 2:59:46 pm
Vehicles of the army on the Line of Actual Control. (Express File)
The unprecedented level of the voltage levels in several localities of the eastern zone of Ladakh in the dispute of the India-China border, where Chinese soldiers have moved into Indian territory across the Line of Actual Control (LAC), has raised questions about the Chinese motives for this action. Most of the observers were anxiously waiting for the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi of the annual press conference in the framework of the Congress of the Communist Party for an explanation, but its 100-minute duration of the press in Beijing on Sunday, not to mention India at all.
“The Chinese learned of the public in the management of the Doklam crisis. They thought that India would be quick to inform the media of communication, so that did it first and continued to do so. We were calm and measured, calling the discussions and negotiations. They are trying to avoid that kind of situation. Quiet diplomacy has space to produce results in this kind of situations,” Gautam Bambawale, who was the ambassador of India to China from 2017 and 2018, he said The Indian Express.
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“The actions of China are difficult to decipher, especially in the absence of any authoritative statements of Beijing,” said Taylor Fravel, a Professor of International Relations at MIT and the author of two major books on China, territorial disputes and its military strategy.
“The simplest explanation, perhaps, is that China is responding to the efforts of India to strengthen border-area infrastructure in Ladakh after the completion of the DSDBO road. After India is moving in Doklam in 2017China is perhaps especially sensitive to the Indians of the activity along the disputed border. Around Galwan, in particular, China may be trying to pre-empt an Indian effort to improve its links with the LAC,” he added.
The Galwan river valley is represented in this map. (Google Maps)
But Ashok Kantha, who was the ambassador of India to China from 2014 to 2016, argues that the Chinese “seems to be the fact of physically changing the position in the soil and the prevention of our troops from the company monitoring it regularly.”
“There are some of the main changes from the previous pattern of what we have witnessed with regard to the Chinese behaviour on the border: one, that seem to have come in large numbers in a new area (Galwan river valley), which had not been controversial in terms of the alignment of the LAC; two, they are staying put, dug, and tents, and not only as a short-term patrol; three of these raids are happening in several places; and four, they have become more assertive and aggressive in their behavior,” he said.
“On both sides, the development of the infrastructure that is going on, and we’ve reached in the last 7-8 years in Ladakh in a big way, with the improvement of the access to the LAC. I am using LAC as a loose term because there are different perceptions of the LAC on both sides. These two things together, where the Chinese are concerned that we have a better access to the border and LAC is not the same as ours, has led to the situation in Galwan. Link with the FDI norms is a bit of a stretch,” Bambawale added.
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Lieutenant General DS Hooda (retd), who was the Commander-in-chief of the Army of the North during the 2014 confrontation at Chumar, agrees “there is certainly an element of coercion in what the PLA is doing along the LAC. In the past, the red line of both sides were clear and limited to a specific geographic area, for example, Chumar or Doklam.
“With multiple intrusions, the Chinese have upped the ante with a view to the pressure of India. I really can’t speculate about what your final intentions, but their behavior brings with it great risks. As past incidents show, India will not back from the coincidence of military moves.” he said.
The soldiers near the Line of Actual Control in Chushul, 59 kilometers from Pangong lake in Leh. (Express File Photo: Shuaib Masoodi)
Kantha holds that “this is part of a broader pattern of behavior of the Chinese and should not be seen as something localized and isolated incidents in the pockets along the India-China border. It is a reflection of the increasing assertiveness of China. Look, how are your diplomatic speaking? We did not create the term wolf-warrior of the diplomacy, they did. The Chinese media has made that there are clear instructions to their diplomats to push back. It is possible that similar orders have been transmitted to the military commanders as well, along the India-China border and in the south China Sea to be more assertive.”
“The broader context is the need for China to show strength in the midst of the pandemic, which originated in Wuhan, which has damaged the economy of China and worsened relations with many countries,” said Fravel. This is a point of view that Kantha also shares, “The activation of border areas with China could also be part of their pressure tactics and their desire to gain influence vis-a-vis India with regard to the issues of bilateral relations and matters like the Covid and WHO.”
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Bambawale is also concerned about the the incidents of physical violence between Indian and Chinese soldiers during the current tensions, “Our established Standard operating procedures and exercises of those who have not worked this time and the new cutters, as the situation on the ground has changed. But what is more important is the absence of a mutually agreed solution of the line – you can call LAC, or whatever it is that both armies know that it is not to be crossed. Until that happens, these situations can occur again.”
“We should not downplay the importance of these serious events in the India-China border areas,” said Kantha.
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