The overall momentum of India-US ties, including growing security cooperation and focus on the Indo-Pacific, is unlikely to change under Joe Biden’s presidency, although experts believe there will be some rebalancing in certain areas.
In a congratulatory message Saturday night, Prime Minister Narendra Modi recalled Biden’s “critical and invaluable” role in strengthening bilateral ties in his previous role as vice president under President Barack Obama, saying that I looked forward to working closely with the President again. elect.
This message, Biden’s past support in critical areas such as civil nuclear cooperation and counter-terrorism, and strong bipartisan support in the US are expected to reinforce the strategic partnership with India to address global challenges. the pattern for the future course of ties. people familiar with the events said on condition of anonymity.
Biden has been a strong advocate of US-Indian relations since his days as a senator in the 1970s. During his second term as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he wrote to then-President George W. Bush in 2001 to unilaterally withdraw US sanctions against India. In his third term in the same post, India viewed Biden as a critical ally in gaining Senate approval for the 2008 US-India civil nuclear deal and also co-sponsored several terrorism legislation.
“Biden was a consistent advocate for the nuclear deal and was certainly critical to its success,” said one person who declined to be named.
Peter Lavoy, former US undersecretary of defense for Asia-Pacific security affairs, said: “Relations between the United States and India have steadily improved under Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. The Biden administration will certainly see India as a key global partner and can be expected to further deepen economic, political and strategic ties. ”
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The relationship between India and the United States will benefit, as Washington will not have to repair after Trump, said Vipin Narang, associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “Overall, it will probably be more of the same as the relationship continued its steady progress despite Trump disrupting relations with other partners such as Germany and South Korea,” Narang said.
In a 2006 interview, Biden had prophetically said: “My dream is that in 2020, the two closest nations in the world will be India and the United States. If that happens, the world will be safer. ”Biden was also part of the Obama administration when the United States declared India its top defense partner and backed its bid for permanent membership in a reformed UN Security Council.
As recently as last month, Biden wrote in an op-ed in the India West newspaper that a Biden-Harris administration will build on “great progress” in ties with India under the Obama-Biden administration. “We can and must be natural allies,” he said.
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Biden also offered support on issues such as fighting terrorism and China’s aggressive actions. He wrote: “The United States and India will unite against terrorism in all its forms and work together to promote a region of peace and stability where neither China nor any other country threatens its neighbors.”
Former Ambassador Vishnu Prakash noted the geopolitical convergences and bilateral commonalities on issues such as security, energy and the economy between the two sides, and said: “These are areas where both sides meet and the United States will be very happy to work with us. . Additionally, America’s relations with India and Pakistan have disintegrated. With India, it is building on the positives and with Pakistan, it is containing the negatives. ”
However, former Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, Distinguished Fellow for Foreign Policy Studies at Gateway House, said India will have to keep an eye on the new US administration’s policy towards China, which could be markedly different from that of the outspoken Trump. “Biden’s policy for China will take several months to take shape, although it is expected to be less noisy with China,” he said.
Bhatia and Narang also warned that India should not wait for a free pass on issues like Kashmir and human rights, which Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris have raised in recent months.
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While the Trump administration generally did not speak on human rights issues and the situation in Kashmir, both were featured in Biden’s campaign documents. An agenda document said the Indian government “should take all necessary measures to restore the rights of all the people of Kashmir,” as restrictions on dissent weaken democracy. Biden was also disappointed by the “implementation and consequences of the National Register of Citizens in Assam and the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act” as he believed that “they are incompatible with the long tradition of secularism of the country and with the maintenance of a and multi-religious democracy ”.
Narang said: “On the part of Delhi, it may be necessary to address the perception that the BJP was fully in favor of Trump and that it attacked Democrats in recent years for expressing human rights concerns. But overall, I would expect only minor variations on the broader theme of a deeper partnership between India and the United States on a wide spectrum of issues, from defense to dollars to the diaspora as well as democracy. “
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