The question for both teams will depend on how New Zealand fares in their series against Pakistan as well.
Even as a standalone competition, Australia vs India is a marquee series with a lot on the line, but with the World Test Championship final looming in June, the stakes are high for both teams in terms of the big picture. New Zealand’s 2-0 series win against the West Indies lifts them to third place in the Championship table, and if they repeat that score against Pakistan later this season, both Australia and India will have to work to stay on. above them on the table. Here’s a look at what this series, and India’s home series against England, means to their qualifying prospects.
India
Series played: 4, Points: 360, Points%: 75
India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-round series, which means that the point allocation for both series is the same: 30 points for a win, 10 for a draw.
If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their score will increase to 420 and their points percentage to 70. That means 70% is the target that India must beat to stay ahead of New Zealand.
For that to happen, India needs at least 150 points, out of the 240 offered in these two series. That can happen in two ways: if India wins five games, or if it wins four (120) and draws three (30).
Given India’s outstanding home record, they will have a good chance of scoring all the points against England; that will mean they will need at least one win, or three draws, in all four Tests in Australia to hit that 150 point goal.
If, for example, India loses to Australia by a 1-2 margin, it will need 110 series points against England. Since a win will bring 30 points and a draw 10, the only way they can get to 110 is if all four win.
Australia
Series played: 3, Points: 296, Points%: 82.22
Australia is currently at 296 and needs to go beyond 420 to have a percentage of more than 70 points, if the series against South Africa happens. If that series is canceled, your goal will be to exceed 336. As the South African series is expected to be three rounds, 40 points will be offered for a win and 13 for a draw.
Despite the myriad of injury concerns, Australia is still on fairly firm ground, thanks to the points tally it has already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will be at 356 points and 74.17 percentage. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will take them to 422 points, and a little beyond New Zealand’s reach. If they lose 1-2 to India, Australia will need a 2-0 series verdict against South Africa to stay above 70%.
S Rajesh is statistics editor for ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats
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