India added 99,181 cases of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) on Thursday as it continued to set new world records for daily cases, gradually approaching the grim threshold of 100,000 cases in one day.
The total number of cases in the country reached 4,559,710, data compiled by HT from all states showed Thursday night.
The spread of the virus has accelerated in the world’s second-most populous country, with worrying trends emerging, particularly due to the persistently growing number of active cases. At 945,771 on Thursday night, this number approached the one million mark, a level second only to the United States that continues to lead in terms of total infections seen to date.
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Earlier in the day, the global death toll surpassed 900,000. Of this, 76,303 are in India, despite the country having recorded a relatively lower fatality rate (CFR) of 1.7%, the proportion of those who died among confirmed cases, compared to the global average. 3.2%.
In the seven-day period between September 3 and September 10, India reported 90,195 new cases of Covid-19 every day on average. Two months ago (for the week ending July 10), this number was 24,566 cases per day and it was 58,742 daily infections a month ago for the week ending August 10.
In contrast, even when the pandemic was at its peak in the United States (late July), this number never exceeded 70,000 cases per day. The United States is the most affected country in the world with more than 6.5 million cases.
The national doubling rate (the number of days it takes to double a certain number of infections) has not improved in the last two weeks and has remained around 32 days.
One of the key reasons for the continued increase in daily cases is that the pandemic has shown no signs of abating, even in the most affected regions of the country. States like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka (in first, second and fourth places with 990,795; 537,687 and 430,947 cases respectively) continue to drive the number of daily cases. Just under half (45%) of all infections in India in the last week have come from just these three states. In fact, three out of every four infections in the country in the last week came from 10 states.
Daily cases have also reached a new peak in the past two weeks in Delhi, which was one of the only states with major hot spots that managed to control the outbreak. The capital reported 4,308 new cases on Wednesday, albeit backed by a record number of tests: 58,340.
Higher tests have also been one of the key reasons for this rapid increase in cases across the country. On average, the country has analyzed more than a million samples a day during the last two weeks, and this trend is continuously increasing.
Yet despite increased testing, many major states continue to have high positivity rates, a factor that experts said was alarming. The positivity rate shows how widespread the virus is in a region. Almost a quarter (24%) of all tests in Maharashtra have been positive for Covid-19 in the last week, in Andhra Pradesh more than 15% of all tests have tested positive and in Karnataka this number was around 13 %. The high positivity rates in these states indicate that the number of infections may not decrease anytime soon and that testing is not yet being performed adequately.
Most of the cases have come from rural areas in the past month, where healthcare challenges, from testing to treatment, are far more significant, HT reported Aug. 26. The trend is very different from that observed in the first months of the pandemic, when the cases occurred mainly in urban areas.
Experts said that the major focus of governments, despite the rapid increase in cases, should remain on keeping mortality as low as possible.
“It is not surprising that the number of cases is increasing day by day. The infection has spread to most of the country and we can no longer contain it. Cases will keep climbing until a peak is reached. However, this peak will be different for different locations. Now, many cases are being reported in smaller cities and rural areas that had not been affected before. The important thing is to focus on reducing mortality, ”said Dr Puneet Mishra, a professor in the department of community medicine at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS).
“India has a three-tier health care system, and most rural areas have access to a primary health care center, a wellness center or a sub-center. These centers are usually run by paramedical personnel and not doctors. And while 80% of Covid-19 patients do not require medical care at all, the rest need a lot of care with proper monitoring or an admission to the ICU (intensive care unit). This cannot be done in a primary health care facility. Furthermore, 70% of our medical care is provided by private hospitals concentrated in larger cities. So, I hope that mortality increases a little with the disease that affects rural areas, “he added.
(With input from Anonna Dutt)
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