Hyderabad: The Medical Research Council of India estimates, based on its seroprevalence survey conducted in May and June, that 40 percent of the Indian population is already exposed to the SARS-Cov 2 virus.
But the really scary part is this: For every confirmed case detected, there are 80-130 lost cases of coronavirus infection.
As of Saturday morning, the number of cases from India, according to official state records, was 46.6 million. If you multiplied it by the ICMR lower range figure of 80, you would have 372.8 million.
These are the results of India’s first national study on coronavirus infections. The study dates back to the period from May to June when the pandemic was a coming storm.
These missed cases include asymptomatic, mild or severe cases and deaths from COVID-19.
In contrast, the US is estimated to have 10 lost cases for every confirmed case.
So why do we miss them? The Indian Council of Medical Research says we missed cases because we only evaluated those who had symptoms of acute and severe respiratory infection.
There is also great variation in the testing methodology used by states. The tests were carried out only on those people who showed symptoms and their contacts, but tests were not done in the community, which would have given a more accurate picture of the spread.
The lost cases mean that we also missed many deaths from COVID-19. The ICMR findings show that the mortality data is incomplete, as many deaths were not attributed to Covid-19.
These findings have been published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research.
Going back to May, the study found that there were 64,68,388 accumulated infections.
ICMR recommends that the implementation of context-specific containment measures, including testing of all asymptomatic cases, isolation of positive cases, and follow-up of high-risk contacts, is important to decrease the transmission rate and burden of disease. health systems.
Dr A. Velumani, Scientist and Managing Director of Thyrocare Technologies Limited, said: “The exposure rate in May and June shows that the infection has spread to the population. The prevalence of antibodies in September is 27%. The movement of the virus has been very fast and now we have to control deaths. With further unlocking, the number of cases will increase, but the number of deaths should not increase. The focus should be on how to reduce
mortality.”
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