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New Delhi: The trajectory of COVID-19 cases may have stalled or even decrease for a few weeks after the blockade is lifted, but India is likely to see a second wave in late July or August with an increase in the number of cases during the monsoon, scientists say.
The timing of the spike will depend on how India can control physical distancing and the level of spread of infection after restrictions are relaxed, they said.
It seems clear that the trajectory of new daily cases has reached a plateau and will eventually decline, perhaps for a few weeks or even months, “Samit Bhattacharya, associate professor in the Department of Mathematics at Shiv Nadar University, told PTI .
“Still, we may have an increase in new cases of the same coronavirus and this will be considered a second wave,” Bhattacharya explained.
The second epidemic may return in late July or August in the monsoon, although the peak moment will depend on how we control social distancing during that time, he said.
Rajesh Sundaresan, a professor at the Bengaluru Indian Institute of Science (IISc), agreed.
“Once we get back to normal activity levels, there is a chance that the infection will start to increase again. China is seeing this to some extent after the reduction of some travel restrictions,” said Sundaresan, corresponding author of a paper. of work done by researchers from IISc and The Tata Institute for Fundamental Research (TIFR) in Mumbai, told PTI.
On March 25, when the number of coronavirus cases was 618 with 13 deaths, the government announced a national blockade, which then extended until May 3.
On Friday, the death toll from COVID-19 rose to 718 and the number of cases to 23,077, according to the Union Ministry of Health.
In good news, officials this week said the case-doubling rate has slowed in the period, from 3.4 days before closing to 7.5 days, with 18 states better than the national average. The recovery rate has also almost doubled in the past 10 days.
“Looking at the new cases in the past few days, it seems that the growth of a new daily infection is much slower than before. This apparently indicates that we could have reached the plateau of the growth curve,” said Bhattacharya.
He noted that recent studies in China and Europe noted that the infection could relapse to those who have already recovered from the earlier phases.
“Therefore, there is no evidence that the previous infection can help to acquire immunity against the second infection. And in this way, the entire population may be vulnerable to the second wave to some extent,” said the scientist.
In their study presented this week, the IISc and TIFR researchers analyzed the impact of strategies such as case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing, and various post-COVID-19 restrictions that could remain in effect for some time.
The Bengaluru and Mumbai-based study suggests that the infection is likely to have a second wave and the threat to public health will remain, unless steps are taken to track, locate, isolate cases and prevent the entry of new infections.
The new levels and maximum times for the demand for medical care depend on the levels of infection spread in each city at the time of the restrictions relaxation, they said.
“The blockade is currently upon us. It has given us valuable time. Let us test, track, quarantine, isolate, practice better hygiene, seek a vaccine, etc. We must do this anyway, and this is being done. When and “How to lift the blockade will be a difficult decision to make,” Sundaresan said.
“It is clear that it will be gradual. Our team is focused on finding tools to help decision-makers assess the public health impact of various options,” he said.
According to experts, infectious diseases are spread through contact between infectious and susceptible people. In the absence of control measures, an outbreak will grow as long as the average number of people infected for each infectious person is more than one.
Once enough people are immune, there will be fewer people susceptible to infection and the outbreak will die.
However, when an outbreak is controlled through social distancing and other interventions, only a small proportion of the population may have been infected and obtained immunity, they said.
This means that enough susceptible people may remain to feed a second wave if controls are relaxed and infection is reintroduced.
“Until the vaccine goes to market, we have to remain alert” Once sporadic cases occur here and there in the country, we must immediately implement quarantine or local distancing for people in that region, and we must also carry out tests to identify positive cases regardless of showing symptoms, “Bhattacharya explained.
“Please note that these monsoon months are also flu season in many places in India. Therefore, we should not ignore the early signs of flu symptoms. Regardless of the symptoms, we need to increase the testing on the points critical to identify people and contain the increase, “he said.
Sundaresan added that the timeline for a second wave will depend on many circumstances that can change over time.
“It is possible that significant tests have been carried out, there may be behavioral changes with people becoming more careful about their hygiene, the use of masks may be more common, etc. All these responses can help to restrict the second wave” , said.
A study published in The Lancet magazine earlier this month modeled the potential adverse consequences of premature relaxation of interventions and found that it could lead to a second wave of infections.
The finding is critical to governments globally, because it warns against premature relaxation of strict interventions, the researchers said.
“While interventions to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 are in place, countries will need to work to return to normal; therefore, the effect of each intervention is urgently required,” they said in the study.
According to a recent analysis by the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, the best strategy to ease the burden of critical care and the loss of life of COVID-19 could be intermittent social distancing.
“In the absence of such interventions, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained in 2022, which would present a substantial social and economic burden,” the researchers wrote.
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