Updated: December 4, 2020 10:12:25 pm
According to the analysis, India is the main buyer of the COVID-19 vaccine, followed by the European Union, which has confirmed 1.58 billion doses, and the US.
India is the largest buyer of COVID-19 vaccines in the world at 1.6 billion doses, according to a global analysis, a number that some scientists say could ‘cover 800 million people, or 60 percent of its population, and will be sufficient to develop group immunity. ‘
India has purchased 500 million doses of the candidate vaccine from the University of Oxford-AstraZeneca, 1 billion from the American company Novavax and 100 million doses of the candidate Sputnik V from Russia’s Gamaleya Research Institute, according to the Center for Innovation in Global Health from Duke University in the United States.
Analysis of the launch and scale speedometer, which is updated every two weeks, shows that India has confirmed 1.6 billion doses of three vaccines as of November 30, while the US and the EU have purchased doses of six candidates.
According to the analysis, India is the main buyer of the COVID-19 vaccine, followed by the European Union, which has confirmed 1.58 billion doses, and the United States, the most affected country so far, which has managed to buy just over a thousand million doses.
As countries develop strategies to secure more vaccines to protect their populations against the new coronavirus infection, Duke University has released a new global assessment of COVID-19 vaccine purchase agreements, even before there are candidates. in the market.
“Countries with manufacturing capacity, such as India and Brazil, have been successful in negotiating large market commitments with the leading vaccine candidates as part of manufacturing agreements,” the Duke researchers noted in their analysis.
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“The data is based on what is in the public domain and after talking to government officials, especially in India,” explained virologist Shahid Jameel.
In November, Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said that between 400 and 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were estimated to be available to 250 to 300 million (25 crore to 30 crore) people in India. for July-August 2021.
Jameel told PTI that all the vaccines ‘pre-booked’ by India are manufactured by the Indian companies Oxford-AstraZeneca and Novavax by the Serum Institute of India (SII) in Pune and Sputnik V by Dr Reddy’s Lab in Hyderabad.
India’s national vaccine candidate by Bharat Biotech also entered Phase 3 clinical trials this week.
“Bharat Biotech and Zydus-Cadila would also add around 400 million doses a year. In short, the numbers look reasonable for 2021 and 2022, ”said Jameel, director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University.
“We can expect the first 250 million to be vaccinated in 2021; the rest in subsequent years. The problem will not be the doses of the vaccine, but the ability to administer them, ”explained Jameel.
He pointed out that 1.6 billion doses would cover 800 million people or 60 percent of India’s population. This, the virologist said, should be enough to develop herd immunity, a form of indirect protection against infectious diseases that occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population has become immune to infection.
The first 500 million doses, the virologist said, are likely to reach 250 million people in the group that includes front-line workers, health, sanitation, emergency services and security services.
This group also includes the elderly over 65 years of age and patients with comorbidities.
Immunologist Satyajit Rath said there is currently no particularly reliable estimate of the percentage of community coverage that needs to be vaccinated to reach the point of “herd immunity.” The reliability of the models used for these estimates is far from clear, he emphasized.
“Given that all the vaccine candidates being discussed as being purchased have two dose vaccine regimens, the current number for India would vaccinate, at best, 80 million rupees (800 million) people. This, of course, does not take into account the logistical losses, which can be substantial, ”Rath, from the National Institute of Immunology (NII) in New Delhi, told PTI.
Furthermore, this seems to imply that COVID-19 vaccination is a one-time exercise. But it is not clear how long the protection mediated by the vaccine will last and therefore it is not clear when the vaccination will need to be repeated and how it will be administered, ”he added.
Pointing out some uncertainties about COVID dose purchases, Rath said he has? Curiosity? on the “confirmed” purchase by India.
“Have they been paid or at least committed to a certain price, are these acquisitions through the COVAX program or independent of it, and above all, of course, what is the agreed delivery schedule in this acquisition, etc.?
Rath also noted that it is difficult to predict how many will be immunized and when.
“The next set of uncertainties I have is whether there are credible and well-crafted plans in India to match these delivery schedules with onward transportation, actual catchment and vaccination, plans for multi-stage transportation, warehousing in cold at multiple points, the provision of injection accessories …, the maintenance of necessary records and, above all, the personnel trained to administer the injections. “
In Rath’s view, a certain sector of healthcare workers is likely to be immunized in the coming months, as well as a certain proportion of ‘first aid’ people at high occupational risk of infection. Beyond that, are we just whistling in the wind at this stage? he said.
The Duke analysis also found that Canada and the United Kingdom have reached deals for more than 350 million doses from seven developers.
The analysis does not include Russia and China, which have their own vaccine programs for their citizens.
The researchers noted that a surge of nearly 200 COVID-19 vaccine candidates are advancing through development and clinical trial processes at unprecedented speed.
More than 10 candidates are already in Phase 3 large-scale trials and several have received emergency or limited clearance.
The number of Advance Market Commitments (AMCs) made by countries and multilateral associations eager to reserve vaccine supplies, even before there are candidates on the market, is unprecedented.
“High-income countries currently have 3.8 billion confirmed doses, upper-middle-income countries have 829 million doses, and lower-middle-income countries have more than 1.7 billion doses,” according to the report.
The researchers said they have been unable to find evidence of direct deals made by low-income countries, suggesting that those countries will rely entirely on COVAX’s 20% population coverage.
COVAX is a global initiative led by WHO, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), and the international vaccine alliance organization Gavi that aims to bring together governments and vaccine manufacturers to ensure that all countries have access to COVID-19 vaccines once they are available.
Since none of these vaccines are approved, the Duke researchers said some of the purchased candidates may prove unsuccessful, adding that countries that can afford it are purchasing a portfolio of vaccines, in the hope that one or more will pass the regulatory process. .
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