India’s Covid count is 91,77,840. (Archive)
New Delhi:
There are two ways to modify the actual number of Covid cases. The first, more obvious way is to reduce the amount of testing that is done, as Donald Trump repeatedly suggested. The second, less obvious and more insidious way is to increase the number of antigen tests and reduce the number of PCR tests.
As we all know, antigen tests do not detect the Covid virus as well as PCR tests. In fact, separate data, published by only a few states, on PCR vs Antigen test results, shows that PCR tests have a positivity rate that is 2.5 to 3.5 times higher than PCR tests. Antigen (eg in Delhi, the positivity rate for PCR tests is 14% while the positivity rate for antigen tests is 4%).
Since 100% PCR testing at the start of the pandemic, India is now down to less than 60% of PCR testing, while antigen testing has risen sharply from a negligible number to nearly 5.5 million rupees. , which represents more than 40% of the total tests. And, every week, there is a continuous upward trend in antigen tests.
1. SIGNS OF BAD EVIDENCE
This table clearly shows the good, bad and ugly states. Bihar, Telangana, Gujarat, Delhi and UP are the 5 worst states in India with less than 50% PCR tests. Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan are excellent with 100% PCR testing.
2. SUB-NOTIFICATION OF COVID CASES
States with a high level of antigen testing are likely to miss a large number of positive cases. Once again, Bihar, especially during the run-up to the elections, was the worst state in India for Covid cases that went unreported. The actual number of Covid cases in Bihar was a scandalous 132% of officially reported cases. Telangana and Gujarat have also underestimated the Covid pandemic in their states.
3. MASSIVE NUMBER OF UNREPORTED COVID CASES
But what do these percentages mean in real numbers?
India has not reported 3.4 million cases of Covid due to the deliberate increase in the use of unreliable antigen tests.
The official number of Covid cases in any state depends, of course, on the population of each state, the extent of Covid in the state, all tempered by the scope of antigen testing in that state.
Maharashtra and Delhi have the highest actual number of lost Covid cases; together, more than 10 lakh of Covid cases are missing.
Once again, Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan are the two most responsible and honest reporting states, along with Punjab, accurately measuring and reporting the number of Covid cases in their states.
4. STATES CLASSIFIED BY GENUINE TEST LEVELS
The true ranking of any state as to how well it is testing its population is the number of PCR tests that are performed.
Tamil Nadu stands out far above the rest of India: it is the only state that has performed more than 1 crore of PCR tests, which also reflects the highest number of tests per capita with almost 1,400 tests per ten thousand of its citizens. Karnataka is the second best state with more than 13.00 PCR tests for every ten thousand citizens.
Bihar, Telangana and Gujarat are the worst in the number of CRP tests per capita of their population.
Overall, India is not using PCR testing sufficiently – only 550 out of 10,000 Indian citizens are being tested with PCR.
5. STATES UNDERESTIMATING THEIR TRUE POSITIVITY RATE
The official figures on India’s positivity rate are misleading. The true positivity rate is much higher. Once again, PCR tests reveal the truth.
For the country as a whole, the actual positivity rate is almost 140% of the officially declared rate (for example, to be clear, the official positivity rate for all of India is 6.9%, while the Actual positivity rate is 9.6%, ie 9.6% is 139% of 6.9%).
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