New DelhiA government appointed committee has said that India has crossed the peak of the coronavirus and predicted that the epidemic could be brought under control early next year, possibly late February 2021, if all measures are followed. But the onset of winter and the upcoming festival season can increase susceptibility to infection and laxity at this point can again lead to a spike.
Maintaining a “steady downward trend,” the number of active coronavirus cases in India remained below eight thousand rupees for the second day in a row on Sunday and accounted for 10.45 percent of the total number of cases. There are currently 7.83,311 active cases of coronavirus infections. The total number of recoveries has increased to 65,97,209 and is 58,13,898 more than active cases. The Covid-19 recovery rate in the country has also increased to 88.03 percent.
Up to 22 states and Union territories, including Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, and Chandigarh, have fewer than 20,000 active cases. In addition, 10 states and Union territories, including Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Telangana, Rajasthan and Odisha, have more than 20,000 but less than 50,000 active cases, while three states : Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala: have more than 50,000 active infections. “The downward trend in active cases is complemented by the continuing and increasing number of recovered cases,” said an official.
A total of 72,614 coronavirus patients recovered and were discharged in one day, while 61,871 new infections were reported in the same time. It is observed that up to 79 percent of the new recovered cases are concentrated in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. Maharashtra has contributed the highest number, with more than 14,000 recoveries in a single day.
In their study titled “Progression of the Covid-19 Pandemic in India: Forecast and Effects of the Lockdown”, India’s government-appointed Covid-19 national committee of supermodels headed by Professor M. Vidyasagar (IIT Hyderabad ) warned, however, that relaxation in security measures may lead to a significant increase in coronavirus cases. It can be as much as “up to 26 lakh cases a month,” the committee said, adding that only 30 percent of the population have developed immunity so far.
The committee said that if all protocols are followed, the pandemic can be brought under control early next year, with a minimum of active cases by the end of February. The total number of infections by the time the epidemic ends could be about 105 thousand rupees (10.5 million).
The committee, made up of eminent scientists and academics, said the initial coronavirus-induced lockdown had saved a large number of lives and prevented creating widespread panic. He said that the number of Covid-19 related deaths in August 2020 would have been more than 25 lakhs if there had been no lockdown, and also that there would have been more than 1.4 billion symptomatic infections by June 2020 .
…
