Updated: November 20, 2020 11:58:32 am
Outside a vegetable shop in Prahlad Nagar in Ahmedabad on Thursday. The city will witness the nightly curfew until Monday due to the Covid-19 pandemic. (Express photo: Nirmal Harindran)
Explanation of coronavirus numbers in India: After 47 days, India on Thursday reported more new cases of infection than those declared to have recovered from the disease. The result was a small increase in the number of active cases, which has been steadily declining for almost two months.
A total of 45,882 new cases were detected on Thursday, slightly higher than the 44,807 that were declared recovered.
India detected 45,882 new Covid-19 cases on Thursday
Recoveries that exceed the detection of new cases is the clearest sign that the spread of the disease is being contained, if the trend continues for a long time. In India, this trend has continued since the third week of September, almost two months ago. There is no guarantee that the number of new cases will not rise again, as has happened in the United States and Europe, and even in Delhi and Kerala, which are experiencing a second or third wave of infections. But until this trend continues, it will give health authorities a much-needed respite, because the number of active cases begins to decline. It also gives people hope that by continuing to take protective measures they could keep the disease at bay.
In India, active cases have become less than half than it was two months ago. This is all the more remarkable given that the reduction has occurred during the festival season and has also survived the state elections in Bihar.
Read also | Delhi, Ahmedabad, Pune – India’s Covid Hotspots and How They Are Fighting Rising Cases
The trend break, as happened on Thursday, can only be viewed as an aberration at this time. The daily data published by state governments is not uniform. They do not necessarily contain numbers only from the day they are posted. For example, many states release their data in the early afternoon and most likely have figures from the day before. Additionally, there is a delay at each stage of notification, so there is a delay of two to three days, sometimes even longer, before a case is reported. So it is much better to look at trends than data for an individual day to get a more accurate picture.
With the addition of nearly 46,000 new cases Thursday, the total number of confirmed infections in the country has passed the 90 lakh mark. Of these, more than 84.28 lakh, or almost 94 percent, have recovered from the disease, while more than 1.32 lakh have died.
Delhi Y Kerala continue to provide the maximum number of cases in the country. On Thursday, Delhi reported more than 7,500 new cases, while Kerala had around 5,700.
Meanwhile, a new study in Pune has yielded an interesting finding. Almost 85 percent of the people who were found infected in five areas of the city in a serosurvey conducted three months earlier have now been confirmed to have developed “protective” antibodies. This means that almost 85 percent of those infected in these areas developed immunity against disease.
Serological surveys estimate the spread of a disease in a population group by trying to detect the presence of disease-specific antibodies in the people surveyed. But immunity against the disease is not guaranteed to all people who have developed antibodies. Immunity comes from the presence of what are known as “protective” or “neutralizing” antibodies, a small subset of antibodies.
Also in Explained | Expert explains: how to read serosurveys
The Pune study was the first exercise in which the results of a serosurvey were followed up with an attempt to assess the level of “protective” antibodies in the population group. Read in conjunction with the results of the serosurvey conducted in July and August, this means that of the nearly 51 percent of the population that had already been infected with the virus at that time, about 85 percent had gained immunity against future infections . 📣 Express Explained is now on Telegram
Top 10 States with Maximum Covid-19 Case Burden
It is not clear how long these people will remain protected from further infection. That is still an open question. But this is the first documented case in the country where the prevalence of diseases has become so widespread that it can be seen that the concept of herd immunity is developing to a small extent. Subsequently, it was observed that the areas of Pune that had the highest prevalence of the disease during the serosurvey had a much lower rate of incidence of new cases.
Don’t miss Explained | Videos show how valved masks don’t filter exhaled air
© The Indian Express (P) Ltd
.
